Nb. Our comment from the 06/14/22 (Not published)
Nb. Our comment for 06/22/22
We can’t not start without mentioning the end of the June expiry, which most certainly proved very expensive for someone.
But despite it getting out of control from a derivative perspective, it did adhere to some ratio levels, so at least the dynamic delta was having an effect right until the end.
Our final trading range was either 3645 to 3745 or 3745 to 3895. The fact that the market failed to close above 3745 when we last published on the 14th was a warning. It still could have made the zone by the Friday, but getting back to 4000 by the next day, rollover Wednesday, was obviously not going to happen. The bottom of that trading range was 3645, and the intraday lows on the Thursday and Friday were 3639.77 and 3636.87 respectively.
Evidently, “derivatives didn’t reassert their authority”.
Anyway, and more importantly, this, the July expiry, and what is the ratio picture telling us for this trip.
And if anything, the enormous Y ratio bandwidths have actually got worse.
Now the Y1 one stands at 260-points, but the overall one is the widest ever, coming in at the humongous 815-points wide.
Perhaps a saving grace, for the bulls at least, is at least this time the market is actually at the bottom of this huge bandwidth.
As we have seen, the dynamic delta denoted by the ratio levels has continued to work, it is really now just a question of who is in charge?
The highly strung emotions of the equity mob, or the money on the table of the derivative players?
Sadly, we can’t answer this question, all we can do is say that historically, once the over-excitement of a triple is over, money normally rises to the top.
Range: 3745 to 3995