DJX Ratio Table update 03/08/19

Nb. Comment from 02/28/19

And 25400 was very significant indeed.

The real test was on Thursday 14th Feb when the intraday low was 25308, but more importantly, the close was 25439, so the fact it was fought over and the bulls won tells its own story.

The first point to address is the fact that last time the zone was 24400-24600, but at that very same time, the Feb expiries zone was 25100-25400, so March just basically joined Feb’s, so no surprise or drama there.

Fast forward to the current, and although R1 is at 26200, it is plainly obvious to us this has been fighting a tactical retreat, and at least from 26100.

26100 was where R2 was back in the rollover, so has always been a significant level.

Anyway, seeing this means we now perfectly understand why the DJX’s intraday highs since Friday have been 26052, 26241, 26155 and 26039.

Also, why the close on those days have been 26031, 26091, 26057 and 25985.

We don’t see the move up in the zone here as bullish, more like a correction, but the receding R ratios are, although the failure of this index to surmount the futures selling generated by the dynamic delta isn’t.

On top of which, the Y ratio bandwidth is now 2800-points wide, so the ratios certainly are not filling in underneath.

So, just like the SPX, we are exceedingly nervous….and still two weeks to go.

Range:            25300  to  26200     

Activity:          Moderate

Type:               On balance bearish

Nb. Comment from 03/08/19

The most pleasing aspect about our comment back on the 28th February was our trading range of 25300 to 26200.

Since then, the intraday high has been 26155, and the intraday low from yesterday was 25352, and you can’t say fairer than that.

Actually, you can, as back when this index was persistently trying to get above R1 our zone was lurking down at 25100-25300 (hence the bottom of the range of course) and not many would have thought that just before the rollover this index would be even close.

Anyway, we are not counting our proverbial chickens yet, as the observant will have noticed that in today’s ratio table above, R1 has gone, leaving R2 at 26600 as the new first line of resistance.

This will bring a whole new level of significance to the zone, and perhaps 25100.

First up, of course, it has to get back into its zone, and it might even be willing to relax in it until the rollover on Wednesday.

If not, then, in one of those potentially seminal moments, whether it breaks out above (bullish territory), or below and into bear territory.

We are not going to guess what will happen, but you now know the significance of 25300 and also 25100, so you can react accordingly.

Range:           25100  to  25300        or        25300  to  26600   

Activity:         Average

Type:              On balance only just bullish

March 8th, 2019 by