DJX Aug to Sept Ratio Rollover Table 15th August 2018
We would like to say the DJX tried in the August expiry, and it did, to an extent, just not very hard.
By this we mean it had a 1000-point zone to play around in, and did it take advantage, well quite frankly, no.
In July we saw this index make an 8% round trip, yes, that is correct 8%, by bouncing between respective levels, like the FTSE has done this expiry.
In August they got fixated by the upper boundary, so at the start it was 25058 and now it is 25299, having been as high as 25692, so one would be lucky to squeeze 4% out of that.
This is because in the second week they had three consecutive highs of 25500, 25490 and 25488 and each time failed to breach their zones upper boundary at 25500.
So, by the time they had regrouped and tried again a week later, this time successfully, the SPX was hitting their R1, which messed up their advance here.
Tunnel vision really as the opportunity to go all the way back to 24500 and then go for the second assault with loads of momentum is essentially a missed chance.
Furthermore, in a bizarre twist right at the end they appear to have got interested, although the activity suggests the exact opposite, by introducing 24 new strikes. Not just bizarre, actually plain weird.
Range: 24500 to 25500
Perhaps all that late interest in August is shining a light on Sept and we will see a bit more interest here in the next few days.
We said at this point last expiry (so looking ahead into August) “Perhaps a 1000-point zone is the new norm?”, and the first aspect that strikes us in Sept is the zone is back to normal.
Only time will tell if this will be a good or a bad thing, as in the 2 expiries we have just had with this situation, we saw July take full advantage, but August, as we say above, got consumed with 25500.
Overall activity is way ahead already, but we have to point out that August’s was exceptionally low and Sept is a triple, so it should be far greater anyway.
As a slight rule of thumb that although it is significantly more active we are not really impressed, and if anything, it is slightly disappointing for the penultimate biggie.
If the DJX can break its zone dependence, and having a normal 200-point one is the way to do it, then the Y2 ratio levels are a considerable distance apart, so we suspect it will be more like July than August. Well, here’s hoping anyway.
Range: 25100 to 26100