Distinct lack of ratio in the SPX Feb expiry.

Distinct lack of ratio in the SPX Feb expiry.


Nb. Our comment from the 01/15/21 (Not published)


Nb. Our comment for 01/19/21


After a flash of aggression in the Jan expiry, in the end, it was all a bit of a damp squib, having chosen the target of 3795-3805 from as early as the Monday.

Then you have the rollover from an intermediary to an intermediary expiry, which are always low, so probably a good thing they are the least usual.

Then, to compound it all, this expiry is a five-week one, which are themselves notorious for being slow out of the gate.

The holiday on Monday won’t have helped either.

So, having said all that, the way the pathetic amount of ratio, that is around currently, is aligned, then there is potential for some huge moves.

The Y1 ratio bandwidth it is in above the zone is a massive 150-points wide in itself, for example.

The entire Y1 ratio bandwidth is 285-points, and the overall Y ratio bandwidth is a difficult to imagine 585-points wide.

On top of which, literally and metaphorically, is R1, all alone and not really that imposing to a market with a decent breeze in its sails.

Don’t forget, in the January expiry, Y2 played quite a role.

However, we won’t know how potent it will be this trip until it gets tested.

In the meantime, there is so much scope here, it could easily ping around anywhere and everywhere.

We used to use the ice-rink analogy a lot where the NDX was concerned, but is just as equally appropriate here under these circumstances, as a just the smallest bit of momentum could go a very long way.


Range:            3705  to  3855           

Activity:          Good

Type:              On balance only just bearish


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January 19th, 2021 by