DAX Sept to Oct Rollover 12th September 2017
Yesterday we were lamenting the fact the DAX may not make it across the full range we forecast for this expiry back on the 21st August, 11950 to 12550.
Now we are caught between a rock and a hard place as it could well test R2 today, which would complete our forecast of course (conveniently 12550 has moved up a level to R2 today) but this would make getting back into their zone for Wednesday a very big task.
In truth as the high was 12481 yesterday we would have actually been very happy with that even if it was 69 points shy.
Range: 12250 to 12550
Type: On balance fractionally bearish
The clock is ticking and it just has to do better is all we can say.
R1 on both sides comes in a notch but there is no further development of the ratios and this is what needs to be addressed.
However as we mentioned yesterday the fact that this is a 5 week expiry with a rare German holiday thrown in means we are not getting our hopes up.
Range: 12250 to 12750
Type: On balance only just bullish
It looks like today is going to be the biggest test for the FTSE this expiry as with a rampant Street it will be difficult to dampen down the enthusiasm here.
Although having said this London only managed a rise of 0.5% yesterday whereas the other European exchanges were almost three times this, so they have had plenty of practice.
We are still only talking Y2 above the zone but today should be all about positioning for the rollover on Wednesday, which means in or around the NZ and considering they haven’t left it all expiry it would be terribly ironic to break free now.
Range: 7350 to 7450
The ratios in October are stronger across the board and as you can see from the table there have been several moves.
However it is still the fact that there is no Y ratio at all in this expiry that is the main issue, which again ironically is more usual in a triple than an intermediary, so today and where it finishes will have a direct influence here as well.
However we feel the key will be Germany as it chose to ignore its enthusiasm yesterday but it too is facing their rollover and this may prove more problematic then they perhaps realize yet, so London may not be able to ignore it again.
Range: 7350 to 7450