DAX Rollover table, comment and forecast review

DAX Dec to Jan Rollover table 11th Dec 2017

Hopefully you noticed on Friday the DAX hitting R1, getting as high as 13240.

This in itself is near enough on such a large index to call it a hit, but especially so when it is coming on the end of a +195-point move, and the fact it halved this afterwards was also a fitting reaction.

However, unlike London, here this has stimulated activity, so there is still plenty of life left in this expiry we suspect.

R1 below the zone firms up a bit and both DR and B1 above the zone also come in a bit.

The real issue today will be if it wants another crack at R1 and don’t forget in our forecast back on the 20^th November we did say it should be capable of taking on R2.

We did back then express serious concern over the lack of ratio below the zone, which hasn’t improved much either, and the serious risk that presented, but we also said a lot would depend on whether or not the DJX did actually return to normal.

It hasn’t, and despite that scare when it went down 213-points, the new records over there have certainly helped here.

Which we did suspect when we said “Hopefully it will continue as before and just go from the NZ upwards” which it has done, and rather strangely R2 is still at 13350, but again we are happy with R1 if this week doesn’t pan out as we got our scare, the DJX came to the recue and we nailed the pattern that led to that big down move.

Range:            13050  to  13250

Activity:          Average

Type:               On balance bullish

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For the first look at January and there is not a lot that jumps out.

As usual it is underdeveloped, but as an intermediary this is to be expected and in comparison, to this time last year its actually slightly better, and of course it is the DAX.

The most notable aspect is the rather large Y1 ratio bandwidth immediately above the zone, and where it ends which also misses out a level.

And if it stays like this then next trip could be an exciting one.

Range:           13050  to  13450

Activity:         Average

Type:              Neutral

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