DAX Feb to Mch Ratio Rollover 14th Feb 2018
A real chalk and cheese pair of expiries from the DAX so far for 2018.
The Jan one was the perfect expiry, conforming exactly to the ratios, but Feb definitely not.
However, from this point (i.e. Before Feb became the front month or alpha expiry) we took pains to point out the huge and unusual put activity present, which it still is incidentally.
These are both now significantly in-the-money, but regardless, have most certainly clouded everything this trip.
Range: 11950 to 12300
Just like the SPX the big clue here in the March DAX is that the zone is already at 12450-12550.
Furthermore, the March expiry is looking like another real humdinger, and ordinarily we would be anticipating a blast-off and cautioning seat-belt usage.
However, just like Feb, there are some very chunky put positions, in fact so much so our delta ratio is already as low as 39.8%, and yet again negating the need for us to caution how this index is “always” a slow-builder.
These always cloud the picture but we can only say what we see so best strap yourselves in just in case.
Range: 12150 to 12350