DAX Aug to Sept Ratio Rollover Table 16th August 2018
Well at last the DAX has got going, shedding the “dull as dishwater” title and, dare we say it, eventually fulfilling its potential.
With so much Y ratio around it should have been having these big moves all along, so really this should be no surprise, as is the fact it happened in the rollover week.
What would be impressive, and depending on the remainder of this week, but the DAX could now also be on for a perfect expiry.
It started the August expiry in its zone, which was 12450-12550, and by the end of that week and the start of the second one it was attacking R1, which was then at 12850.
In fact, at exactly the same time the DJX was assaulting 25500 over three days, here their highs were 12848, 12860 and 12833 on those same days.
Then came the stagnation, although it persistently stayed above its zone, albeit just.
All this is now history as the last few days have seen this index now attack R1 below the zone.
Worth mentioning (if only for Sept) but at the start of Aug R1 was at 12150, and although it has crept up it has slipped back a bit now, as you can see from the above table.
Also slipping is the zone, which is now standing at 12350-12450, but with only a sliver of Y1 ratio left below it any further reduction is rather limited.
Nevertheless, it does give this index a realistic target to aim for and achieve that perfect expiry.
In a nutshell, from 12500 up to 12850, then down to the corresponding R1 at (say) 12200, before hopefully expiring above 12300.
Even without the grandstand finish that is a 1000-point round trip, or 8.22%, in an expiry we thought had gone to sleep.
Range: 12150 / 12200 to 12350
Activity: Average
Type: On balance just fractionally bullish
As we mention above it can be worthwhile making a note of these early levels as they will naturally fluctuate throughout the course on this expiry, which don’t forget is 5-weeks, as these can often prove to be the bedrock, as it were.
Again, we are forced to mention that this index can be a slow starter, even with just a day or so to go, but especially so sometimes in light of the “extra” week.
The reason is that despite this being a triple, which should automatically mean a huge increase in activity, this is not the case.
Although, that is not true entirely, as we can see it is the case one way, but certainly not the other.
Our Delta Ratio is standing at 33.9%, which is very bullish, but despite this, just one glance at the above table and it should immediately strike you where the high ratios are, and more importantly, are not.
At last, and as we should, we can see a B ratio, but below the zone the jump in the ratio level at 11950 is the really important level.
And, as one can see, no corresponding DR ratio above the zone, in fact, nowhere is even close, and don’t forget these ratios are exponential.
Could be quite a surprise in store for September.
Range: 12150 to 12250
Activity: Average
Type: Neutral
