At least the Nov SPX starts in its zone

Conventional Ratio alignment for the SPX Nov expiry, but has the world moved on now?


Nb. Our comment from the 10/20/22 (Not published)


Nb. Our comment for 10/25/22


Before we get onto the November expiry, we should mention that the settlement price for the October one was 3656.28.

Which was close enough for us, as the zone did move down, and to 3695-3705, so it got quite close but, regardless of this, this meant that it finished in the Y ratios, so no great harm done really.

Coming back to November, and the zone here was following Octobers down. In fact, the Oct expiry actually pre-empted November, dropping down to 3795-3805 on the 20th, which is why we have made that the comparison in table above.

We think that, had the market not started moving sharply higher immediately after the October expiry, then the zones would have dovetailed circa 3700.

As it happens, with the market reaching the zone by the close yesterday, this is no longer an undue influence.

This also gives November a chance to start on a normal footing.

And the ratio alignment is as textbook as you can get, literally going up in sequence.

If anything, it is slightly skewed towards the upside, as there is a bit more Y ratio northwards than southwards.

However, the real issue, is that we are now back to the situation where the Y1 ratio bandwidth is a massive 360-points, and the overall Y ratio bandwidth is a colossal 510-points.

The problem now, is that back when we were getting these enormous bandwidths of minimal ratio the market was extremely sensitive, reacting to just Y2 sometimes.

Well, just over a week ago it took R3 at 3495 to turn this market around, so we fear that sensitivity ship has sailed long ago.

Of course, only time will tell with this new expiry but, we for one, are expecting a very very exciting ride for the next four weeks.


Range:            3645  to  4005           

Activity:          Moderate

Type:              On balance bullish

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October 25th, 2022 by