After a perfect Oct expiy the Nov FTSE will be a tough act to follow.

Nb. Our comment from the 10/10/19


WOW! And how critical R1 at 7450 proved to be……in fact the last paragraph above pretty much sums up what has happened since we last published, back on Monday 30th September.

The intraday high on the following Tuesday was 7433.24, which just showed how trepidatious the market was of R1 at 7450.

The other end of the trading range way back then, was 7350, the upper boundary of the zone, and the intraday low that day was 7352.83.

That was a bandwidth test, which normally means a breakout the next day.

The market duly obliged, and with 100-points of zero ratio below it, the market already had momentum by the bucket-load by the time it hit the lower boundary.

Which did put up a fight to be fair, but when the market closed below it, this was an ominous sign.

Then it was simply all about which level of R ratio was going to be enough to stem the tide.

As you can see above, they have fallen below the zone, which itself has also fallen, very significantly.

So, R3 was at 7050 at the start of that week, and is now 6950, so we suspect it was 7000 a few days ago.

More to the point, one can still see how significant 7150 is.

Although regaining the zone is currently the most important factor for this index, so 7200 is absolutely critical, especially with the expiry looming next week.

For intraday levels, please just look at the above table in the meantime.


Range:            7150  to  7250          

Activity:          Poor

Type:              Bullish


Nb. Our comment on 10/18/19


It is a wonder to behold, that is, how desperately this index is trying to stay inside its zone for the rollover and expiry.

Also, just a little housekeeping, as when we said “…zone, which itself has also fallen, very significantly”, what we mean is that the drop in the zone is the significant aspect, not that the magnitude of the fall is significant.

Anyway, the day we published this index had one more test of R1 at 7150, intraday low 7130.52, but from that Thursday onwards it was all about the zone.

In the last couple of days, that has meant, trying to stay above the bottom boundary at 7200.

The trouble is, and a quick glance between the two tables above, will readily reveal how far the ratios below the zone have fallen.

And, in fact, we now have 100-points of the minimal Y1 ratio, where there was just 50-points of Y2, such has been the collapse.

Obviously, it will all be over for November in the next few hours, but had one known how significant 7200 was at this particular point in time, then you couldn’t have not been impressed by the effort to get/hold/stay above it, despite the support disappearing below it.

This happens to be but a very minor spot on this expiry, which has been a perfect example, what with the test of R1 above the zone at 7450, before the fall to the corresponding R1 below the zone at 7150, until ending up (as near as damn it) in their zone.

Nice one FTSE.

Why don’t you take the Ratio Challenge…select a chart of the FTSE from the open on 23rd September to the close on 18th October (the Nov expiry), highlight the zone, 7200-7300, and then put horizontal lines at R1, being 7450 and 7150, and look at that in 5 mins or even daily. Point made?


Range:            7100  to  7200        or        7200  to  7300         

Activity:          Moderate

Type:              On balance just bullish          

October 18th, 2019 by