Nb. Our comment from the 04/16/21 (Not published)
Nb. Our comment for 04/21/21
Well, it appears as if the 5-week May expiry has simply picked up where the April one left off.
By which we mean, the capitulation by the ratios above the zone in April, have seemingly seamlessly transferred across to this the new expiry.
There is absolutely no reason for this, other than the players just aren’t playing.
Otherwise, it would be just the same as every other move to a new near-month.
But it is what it is, and just one glance at the above table will tell you that there is a dearth of ratio above the zone, but plentiful amounts below it.
Furthermore, even at this early stage, we are seeing the ratios climb below the zone, and retreat above it.
Also, we can see the zone easily move up to 4095-4105.
So, all in all, it’s a bullish picture, but a picture we can’t help but feel somewhat uneasy about.
We have tried to rationalise this feeling, and the conclusion we have come to, is that it is because all these new all-time-highs are being made without any necessity to absorb the futures that would be forced out by the dynamic delta created by interacting with the R ratios, or even higher than that normally.
Therefore, it’s just weird that we are in a rampant bull market that essentially doesn’t have any bulls in it.
Otherwise, it is the same old mantra, that this is certainly not a risk-free market, as the Y1 ratio bandwidth is 285-points (7%), and the overall Y ratio bandwidth is 485-points (11.7%), so those long best hope that someone, or something, does not go “boo”.
Range: 4005 to 4180 / 4280
Type: On balance bearish