Nb. Our comment from the 04/11/22 (Not published)
Nb. Our comment on 04/19/22
Firstly, a quick word about how the April expiry ended last Thursday, and the EDSP was 7582.04. So, it didn’t manage to get back in its zone, the upper boundary being 7550, but it came close, and it finished in Y1, so no great harm done.
Although, it was interesting to see the intraday lows on the last three trading days of this expiry coming in at 7543.03, 7550.94 and 7551.39 respectively.
Looking ahead now to the May expiry, and the first aspect to note is that the zone is at the same level.
Then the second major thing to note is that in May 7650 is only Y2. And, perhaps significantly, it is only just Y2, having crept over the threshold by just a little bit.
For the record, 7700 is a far more solid Y2, and is in fact at the other end of this bandwidth, being just below the threshold of R1.
And, by comparing the tables above you would be correct in thinking that activity has been towards the top end of the scale, reinforced as well by the “very strong” description below, but overall, activity is an awful lot lower than it was in the April expiry.
Although, April was larger than normal, so despite the difference being very noticeable, in fact, May is just a little bit below the historical normal. Nevertheless, we would have expected at least a large chunk of the April activity to rollover into May. It could still do so, but if it doesn’t, money coming off the table is never a good sign.
Otherwise, despite the market being above its zone, it now has a lot more room to manoeuvre to the upside, whereas below the zone it is nicely underpinned by there being no Y ratio at all.
Range: 7550 to 7750
Activity: Very strong