A double failure to break back into its zone in the DAX hurt. Today’s rollover table, levels and comment.


DAX March to April Rollover 14th March 2018




Considering what it has had to contend with the DAX has done remarkably well.

Very little change in the ratios since we last looked on the 9th March, which is significant as then we thought those large put positions may be starting to be unwound, but evidently not anymore so far.

Therefore, for this index to get back to testing the bottom of its zone, not once but twice, is very impressive, lodging highs of 12454 and 12459 over the last two days.

Of course, next visit would be strike 3 but we suspect it will need a fair wind from the US, and all the while the clock is ticking.

Don’t forget this index spent more than the first week safe in its zone, then bounced off R2 when it was at 12150, then went deep into R3 courtesy of an opening gap down when that was at 11950, so it knows what is where roughly, but 500-points of Y ratio in-between makes for very volatile conditions in the meantime.


Range:            11950  to  12450

Activity:          Only just registered

Type:               Bullish



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In April the most startlingly obvious aspect is no large inherited positions before the start of this becoming the alpha expiry.

So, we are back to mentioning that the DAX can be a slow starter, but even so this is thin, so it is evidently falling prey to the fact this is a 5-week expiry as well as an intermediary.

Therefore, if it doesn’t populate with some ratios the fun and games we are having in 500-points of Y ratio below the zone in March will be proportionately magnified as here there is 900-points, and if you include above the zone and it itself then one is staring at 1500-points.


Range:           11450  to  12350

Activity:         Average

Type:              Neutral



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March 15th, 2018 by