Nb. Our comment from the 03/10/21
We did update the above ratio table on the 5th March, but just on Twitter.
The reason we say that is because it reflected the fact that Y2 had moved up to 3905, which it actually did on the 4th, but this is the first public record.
Which means yesterday’s intraday high of 3903.76 was the third test of this level, although only the first when it was officially Y2 in our table.
This doesn’t really help much, as it just highlights exactly how “lame” this market really is.
Really, if it can’t even get past a lowly Y ratio, and that’s in a biggie, this just makes matters worse.
Also, we have seen this market duck below its zone, getting as low as 3723.34, but alas, no test of the corresponding Y2 level below the zone.
Close, but no prize this time, and the fact it only camped out there overnight, meant the bulls, timid as they are, were at least willing to put up bit of a fight down there at least.
At least the volatility has been there, if not any real movement.
After the first day of this expiry, back on the 22nd February, this index closed at 3876.50, so it has been an exciting ride, a veritable rollercoaster, but at the end of the day going nowhere.
The respective Y ratio bandwidths remain as ridiculously wide as ever, so we can’t envisage this changing any time soon either.
Although, if anything is going to snap this market out of its current lameness, then the rollover and expiry next week will be the events to do it.
Either that, or London will eventually get too sore a head after banging it for so long and for so hard against very high levels of ratio and capitulate, which just goes to show what a market with a bit of emotion can actually do in these triples.
Range: 3805 to (3905) 3955
Activity: Very poor
Type: On balance not bearish
Nb. Our comment for 03/16/21
At last, we are getting somewhere in the SPX, or at least we are now seeing it take on a bit of ratio.
Perhaps it was that trip down to its zone that has sparked this, as quite often, by forcing the bulls’ hand, by being below the zone, a market can benefit from the momentum that this rebound can generate.
Or, it could be just as simple as our previous suggestion, that the rollover and expiry might titillate it somewhat.
As the day after our last comment, the 11th, this index hit the intraday high of 3960.27, which was a very solid test of R1, then at 3955.
But at least it was a test, and perhaps more significantly, one that didn’t result in too much of a pullback, and in fact, that the market persisted in trading around 3955 for at least three hours that day revealed a decent degree of bullish resilience.
Nevertheless, it certainly stirred it all up, as the very next day we saw R1 slip to 3980.
Which was bit of a herald of what we are seeing today, this retreat having continued on Monday, in fact so much so, we have today seen the zone leap all the way up to 3805-3905.
This also means R1 slips further to 4005, with R2 now at 4055 and the loss of R3 altogether.
This is hardly a surprise, and with so much Y ratio about, more expected really.
In fact, the Y1 ratio bandwidth has actually widened to 235-points, and the Y2 one to 360-points, which is hardly a sign of bullish endeavour.
To us, and as alien as this is to this index, it is more like a derivative capitulation, an acceptance of what will be will be, which is all a bit odd.
But then again, there has been very little of what used to pass as normal since 2020.
All bit of a damp squib, made all the more apparent by the heightened levels of aggression being shown by the FTSE currently, in stark contrast.
Range: 3905 to 4005
Type: On balance bearish