The FTSE just doesn’t know what to do, so no real ratio levels forming.
Nb. Our comment from the 01/31/20
It seems like the bears had one more battle, as on the very day of our last comment, the FTSE catapulted itself back into its zone, which to us means above 7550.
The official open was 7507.67, the previous days auction close, so not even the real time one, but to market practitioners, what we shall call, the tradable open, was more like 7564.
Same story really, just in reverse (as in the tradable open being below 7550), on the Monday, the day it closed down 173.93-points.
The Tuesday saw the FTSE test R1 at 7450 first thing, got a bloody nose, but felt confident enough to go back and camp out there for 90 minutes, before a benign Street helped it enough to get above it.
Wednesday, was also all about 7450, but this time it was acting as support.
Yesterday, we were back to the official open bearing no resemblance to the tradable one, but suffice it to say 7450 didn’t even get a look-in.
Today, we can see quite a few changes in the ratios, and very significantly, there is a lot more Y ratio about now.
Interestingly 7350 hasn’t changed, so is now also a very significant level.
But the real deciding factor may now well be R1 having now shifted from 7450 to 7400.
This is because the intraday low on Thursday was 7357.62, and that was at the end of a 126-point fall, we have no doubt or hesitation in calling that a test of R2.
If R2 can hold, and now R1 is not that far away, it could easily get back int the Y ratio.
Either way, it is now in a very narrow bandwidth, so it will have to decide one way or the other soon.
Range: 7350 to 7400
Nb. Our comment on 02/13/20
It has been probably a bit too long since our last comment, especially as there have been so many changes to the ratios.
The real biggie, is the fall in the zone to 7400-7500 of course.
We didn’t see that coming, although without calculating the ratios there is naturally no way that we could have.
More importantly, without knowing when that, or the other ratios changed, means we can’t really comment on any market interaction.
However, the last two days activity around 7500, the top of the zone, now makes sense.
There are going to be a lot more twists and turns here for sure, especially as the rollover is upon us next week.
Suffice it to say, that with the Y ratio bandwidth now stretching from 7250 all the way up to 7650, the FTSE has ample latitude to do almost anything.
The only perplexing aspect is why it isn’t putting down moves like the DAX.
One point that is worth remembering, is that over the first three days of this expiry, this index couldn’t break up through what was then the top of its zone, or 7650, which, as you can see is now R1.