Nb. Our comment from the 11/11/19 (Dec not published)
However, we should point out that the November expiry was full of incident.
On the Thursday the market had bounced off the zone’s upper boundary during the day with the intraday low of 7296.24.
Desperate to get back within its zone for the expiry for us it was no coincidence that the real time close was 7301.82.
Then the closing auction took over, resulting in the published close of 7292.76.
Which was also the new low for the day.
The expiry was just as challenging, but the end result was 7298.82.
Range: 7300 to 7400
Nb. Our comment on 11/18/19
However, for the last two weeks London has been exhibiting some strange characteristics, although not never seen before, they are normally very rare and occur singly, not daily.
What we are referring to is the situation where the open is also the same as either that day’s high or low.
This is made all the more peculiar when one appreciates that in London, and only London, the open is the same as the previous day’s close.
So, on Monday the 4th the open was 7302.42 and that day’s intraday low was 7302.42.
Tuesday it was 7369.69 and 7369.61.
Just a normal day on that Wed, then 7396.65 and 7396.00 and on Fri 7406.41 with the high 7406.83.
Then similar for the first four days of last week.
The significance of this is that the next day’s open is never going to be exactly the same as the previous day’s close, the reason why only London chooses to adopt this is a mystery.
When the open is the same as either the high or the low means that the market only went in one direction, and that therefore the opening price was never a real one.
Therefore, when you see a differential of 0.08, see Tues 5th, and you know the open is fictional, then this differential is impossible.
Therefore, the only conclusion possible, is that two of that day’s benchmark index markers are false.
If this is the case, and how can’t it be, then this pulls into question every valuation or calculation that uses them, especially trading systems, HFT’s and technical analysis, to mention but a few.
Looking at the ratio table for Dec the big level is obviously going to be 7450.
The other main issues are that while the zone is way below the market now, it is odds on that it will move in the next day or so to either 7150-7250, or 7250-7350.
Obviously which one it moves to will change the overall picture considerably.
Range: 7100 to 7450
Activity: Very poor