The DJX eventually made it, SPX zone move and NDX, Ratio Table, levels plus comment.
It’s not a
big change in the SPX, more of interest than significant as well.
The zone has
moved up to 2545-2555, and normally we would comment on this being like taking
a super tanker through a three-point turn in a country lane, but the phenomenon
of 290-points of minimal Y ratio makes this not the case, and in fact rather
perhaps worth noting, that this move up does put the market inside its zone, so
in neutral, rather than above it, and therefore in bullish territory.
with so little ratio about you can pretty much guarantee two things; firstly,
volatility, and secondly, a nomadic zone.
Please don’t forget this index has already tested R3 at 2345 this expiry, so is 8% up from its low, and with virtually two weeks to go, so the bears may not be squealing yet, but time is now not on their side, and the R ratios above the zone still don’t even appear until 2725, so the final battle for this expiry is still to come we suspect.
Activity Very poor
Type: On balance just bearish
For the NDX no change in its zone, but rather intriguingly no
further additions of any strikes.
Although activity has improved, it really isn’t worth writing
Especially, when one considers that it is very stunted overall,
so a little goes a very long way and yet this was the best it could do.
It did have fun around its zone, closing in it and bouncing off it, but at the end of the day the minimal Y ratio is actually very minimal, and what’s more, there are no step-ups, so it really is just one exceedingly vast ice-rink.
Type: On balance only just bearish
It is difficult
to emphasise strongly enough how significant a level 23400 is, and has been,
and not just for the DJX, but also for the other two US indices, and by default
the European exchanges as well.
encounter was on the 28th Dec with the intraday high of 23381, and
when it was R2, which turned a 250-point gain into a 76-point loss.
away from it on New Year’s Eve.
again on 2nd Jan with the intraday high of 23413.
The next day
saw that 660-point fall.
By the 4th
it was now R1 and the bulls were emboldened again, courtesy of the SPX and NDX,
and it made a good intrusion but finished right on it, despite this being
strike 3 and a lot weaker.
yesterday, it didn’t have it all its own way, but finished on the right side,
if you are a bull, so hopefully job done, but the heavy weather it made of it
does not inspire confidence for sure.
As we say
above in the SPX, we suspect there the deciding battle is still to come, so we
are certain that here there will be one here as well.
We call them “step-ups” and here there are two in this mammoth Y ratio bandwidth, at 23800 and 24100.