SPX , NDX & DJX Ratio Table 13th July 2018
It really does look like the SPX is going with the flow as the only time we could discern that it took charge was last Friday.
This was when, for the first (and only?) time this expiry that it took on a ratio level, this was its bottom boundary at 2745, when the DJX wasn’t forcing it.
Without any great commitment of its own it will, or should, struggle with R1 as we are now back to where we were on Tuesday.
The ratios are rising below the zone, which in itself could easily move up to 2770-2780, and they are weaker above it, so all looking good, apart from the one proviso.
And this is that it has only been faced with Y ratio throughout this expiry and now it is about to start hitting the R’s and this is a different ball game entirely.
As we said this index seems to be going with the flow, so it may stall for a while until ratio conditions become more benign, but it may not be down to just them as the other two also have levels to face.
Range: 2755 to 2805
Type: On balance only just bearish
Yup, the NDX definitely gets the Oscar in our estimation as it has easily been the best entertainment.
And right on cue, with the rollover starting next week, we see their zone start that long trek northwards to try and catch this rampant market.
Just a week to go and now a lot of space between the market and those big positions.
One slight fly in the ointment is that despite the ratios above the zone falling away this index in now right on top of Y2.
Of course, please do not lose sight of the fact it is but a Y ratio, but it is also the highest it goes here.
However, it may not be so much about this index alone, although they are known for “doing their own thing” but with the other two both facing ratio levels themselves it might just be a sterner test than it reflects in isolation.
Range: 7125 to 7375 or 7375 to ….
Type: On balance decidedly bearish
Well if you have been reading our comments the DJX behaviour should not be a surprise.
If anything, it has been a little timid as we would have expected a lot more 300-point days then there have been.
The significant change here is that both the R ratios above the zone have dropped an entire level.
How this may impact things, well we will just have to wait and see as only when the market interacts with that dynamic delta will we get an answer.
Historically though, the first reaction is always “what the f***” as the selling surprises them.
Then there is a cautious retest of the level to see if it was a one-off and to get a feel for the depth if it wasn’t.
After that it is basically put up or shut up, and sometimes if one of the other indices are encountering futures selling due to hitting one of their ratio levels is has a greater impact.
Range: 24000 to 25000
Type: Not bullish