In our last
comment on the 25th January here in the SPX R1 was coming up fast on
the horizon, being then at 2680.
this index’s intraday high was 2672.38, and it took quite a knocking before
recovering to get back to 2680 the following Wednesday.
R1 had shifted, as even back then it was evidently on the slide, and today
resides at 2715.
So, we don’t
know quite when it got above R1, but we suspect 2705 and 2715 would have played
a considerable role at the end of last week.
R2 is the
next hurdle, which was at 2730 back on the 25th, so please bear in
mind these ratios are receding.
fully anticipate the zone moving up to 2645-2655, so, all in all three bullish
index is in a very precarious situation with 170-points of Y ratio below it, and
it is the rollover next week, so time is now a factor.
It is not unusual for this index to keep on knocking at the door of a receding R ratio, but please bear in mind the potential for a very nasty setback.
Type: On balance bearish
The NDX is what is, and as it has been all expiry, one enormous
There is virtually no ratio to speak of out there, so enjoy.
Mind you, it still hasn’t stopped them adding strikes, like
anyone cared, as judging by activity, with the benchmark so very low, to
achieve only this is actually pathetic.
Our only surprise, is that we are not seeing 2% or more daily
Although, out of interest, here it is now 0.95% away from their Y2.
Range: 6725 to 7025
Type: On balance decently bearish
We have been
at pains in the DJX to say how fluid the zone was here, and so far, this expiry
we said it really could be anywhere between 23900 and 24600.
Now, it is wider
than normal, but at last it seems to have settled down to where it wants to be.
with the rollover next week, this could be significant.
in our last comment we said Y2, which was then at 25100, could play a
significant role, and we have no doubt at all that it did in the last few days
of last week.
obvious was the intraday high of 25109 on Wednesday, but it seemed thereafter
this index was being very coy about going there again, resulting in a degree of
divergence from the SPX.
Today, it is
Interestingly, this is only 0.64% away for the DJX, but the SPX needs to move 1.11% to hit 2755.
Range: 24800 to 25400
Type: On balance just bearish