The astute might have noticed in the SPX that the low was 2585.66 yesterday, or in other words Y2.
We haven’t had Y2 in our daily trading range from the start of this expiry, but have mentioned it every day so it has been most certainly implied.
More importantly the ratios today have given up what they gained yesterday and in respect of R2 above the zone slipped further.
Again 2570-2580 looks likely to be the next NZ, which of course will be important a week tomorrow, but in the meantime, this would just narrow the daily range while we wait for that all-important test of R1.
Range: 2555 to 2605
Type: On balance just bearish
Perhaps the simple truth behind the DJX’s “inactivity” is because all the attention is back with the NDX.
And the last few days are very similar to what we might expect in the final few days of an expiry.
The NZ jumps again and despite the ratios continuing to tumble above the zone the market still starts in Y2, which is more importantly now the highest level left, so all limits are off.
We should mention what we call the delta ratio is currently 29.7% here, which is very low.
Under 50% we say it is very bullish, but when we get down to these levels it just comes across as everyone’s on a one-way bet.
Range: 6200 to 6300 or 6300 to …..
We are at a loss as to why the DJX is so quiet as it looks to us that everything is now in place.
Everything that is apart from activity and it is always difficult to see what will be the catalyst here.
One such thing in the past has been a move in the NZ and again today 23300-23500 states its case, but today it has been joined by the old front-runner 23200-23400.
Weirdly it could be both making a zero-ratio bandwidth of 23200 up to 23500 and that would certainly put an end to ten or twenty-point moves.
Range: 22700 to 24000
Activity: Only just registered