Good morning SPX. Activity has come crashing back in and with it a bit more engagement we hope.
Yesterday R1 moved from 2530 to 2535 and that really summed up what this index did yesterday.
As you can see today it has slipped to 2540 so the market is meeting the resistance and as it capitulates it is crawling along behind it and the reason why the DJX powered ahead yesterday as it didn’t have this problem.
On its own it can be brave but when one or the other, or both, start hitting their resistance levels it may well be a different story.
Worth noting R2 has slipped today but R3 has come in, so it has actually strengthened, and all are getting close now.
Range: 2480 to (2535) / 2540
Activity Very good
Type: On balance only just bullish
Although the NDX ended the day positive it really was all about the negative yesterday.
By which we mean (despite the DJX) this index was heading south until it hit the upper boundary of its NZ, getting as low as 5976.65, and failing to break through it the market rallied.
Significantly the market came nowhere near the step-up level which is still at 6025.
It is just a step-up and as we said it is a considerable one but it is probably going to come down to how close the other two are to their levels as futures selling across all three at the same time does tend to get noticed a lot more.
Range: 5975 to (6025) / 6075
It is early and there is no maths behind this but we said yesterday “are we going to actually see the return of the prodigal?” and we think we are as the makeup of the activity just looks different now.
Returning swiftly to fact based analysis the aforementioned activity has maintained its high levels but the only ratio to move is 22700 which drops to Y1 leaving 22800 as the last bastion of Y2.
However this index had no problem moving ahead and was happily ploughing on when it eventually noticed the other two were not, and in fact were slightly easier.
This led to bit of an impasse but that big R ratio is drawing ever closer and if that bullish stubbornness so prevalent this year is dissipating it could make for a very interesting meeting.
Range: 22500 to 22900
Type: On balance not bullish