SPX , NDX and DJX today rollover ratio levels and comment

 

Whether or not Y2 was a speedbump in the SPX was made irrelevant by the open, which was, and no surprise, right on it at 2555.57.

The market did dip below it but we feel it was more to do with the DJX then anything happening here.

Yesterday it was clear up to 2565 and today R1 has slipped to 2570 giving it even more room, so it’s not the domestic ratios that are the problem.

As we have said for a while now staying steadfastly above its zone is a definite sign of a bull market and as we have seen here confirmation as it has been tailgating R1 for the last two weeks plus without a backward step.

All bullish but very unnatural and only ever ends one way, the question is just when?

 

Range:            2505  to  2570

Activity:          Moderate

Type:               Bearish

 

 

Indeed, today we see the NZ move up to 2520-2530 in November and hopefully this will act as a beacon for October, and with so much Y1 ratio above the zone there it shouldn’t be too hard to match November.

However, we should point out that in a range bound market it should trade between corresponding levels of ratio either side of the NZ.

In a trending market it should trade between the NZ and a strong enough ratio one side or another.

In an unnatural market, or stale, it just bangs its head against whatever ratio stands in its way until it capitulates.

 

Range:           2530  to  2585

Activity:         Average

Type:              On balance just fractionally bearish

 

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Monday was just a repeat of Friday in the NDX just a bit higher up courtesy of Y2 slipping.

Yesterday Y2 was 6100 and the open was 6108.66 but again it was just a good example of how this index trades in a ratio level it is uncomfortable with as it only tested one side of its range.

And guess what, Y2 has slipped again so again the open will be critical but it is also worth noting where we are in the expiry as the clock runs down and the market gets further away from its zone.

 

Range:            6025  to  6125 

Activity:          Average

Type:              On balance just fractionally bearish

 

 

There are no changes to the ratios in November and therefore there is very little we can add.

However, it is worth noting that October is being sensitive to Y2 so although that is no guarantee this will translate across at least it does give us a trading range here, albeit a massive one.

 

Range:            6025  to  6275                    

Activity:          Average

Type:              On balance bearish 

 

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Well the DJX has done it and although it has taken 4 attempts we are surprised it made it even with the others egging them on.

There is no reason why any market can’t overcome any level of ratio, they just have to be adamant enough in their conviction to take on that amount of futures, in this instance selling.

Our issue is that they have given no indication up to now in this expiry of this degree of conviction, and in the rollover week it really is like playing with fire.

The ratios have not changed today, the rollover is tomorrow with the expiry Friday so fingers crossed these tax breaks are worth it.

 

Range:            22900  to      

Activity:          Moderate

Type:               Not bullish

 

 

Of course, in a weeks’ time as things stand it wouldn’t make any difference at all as in Nov 22900 is just Y2.

However, as you can see from the above table, it does throw up a totally different set of conditions, which perfectly suit the bulls, or politicians, which to us are one and the same really.

So, no trading range in the DJX for November, or to be more accurate no limit, or as one cartoon character once said “to infinity and beyond”.

 

Range:           22900  to 

Activity:         Good

Type:              Bullish

 

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October 17th, 2017 by