SPX , NDX & DJX Ratio Table 26th June 2018
Exactly as it should be, quiet first week of a five-week expiry, then wallop, straight into all that Y ratio.
Yesterday was all about the zones, for the SPX it was their open at 2742.94, which was not only below it but also the third test, the other two being 2743.19 (19th) and 2744.39 (21st), but intraday lows.
Today, it will be all about whether or not it wants to stay below it and in bear territory, which is a big call for this index as it hasn’t been here for quite a while.
All the ratios are firmer, but there is still a stupid amount of Y ratio around, 150-points to be exact, so this could just be the start, so hang on tight.
Please check where the other two are in relation to their zones as at the moment it all seems tied in.
Range: 2655 / (2690) to 2745
Type: On balance bearish
As we said in the NDX last time “this is a big day for the NDX as well, but here it has nothing to do with its zone”, and we were referring to the step-up level at 7275 (sorry we wrote it down as 2775) as “so although still minimal it is the first indication of how this market may react when it encounters its first level of resistance, no matter how small it is”.
So, perhaps worth mentioning, the closing high this expiry, so far at least, is 7280.70.
The two intraday highs were 7309.99 and 7308.26, and 7300 would of course have been our next level.
Anyway, as yesterday was all about zones, here it was the bottom boundary at 6975 that came into play, as the low yesterday was 6976.96.
Admittedly this was their first test, unlike the SPX, but here they evidently really didn’t want to get into bear territory.
Another difference here is that this index is used to a lot of Y ratio around, especially in intermediary expiries but it has definitely been a lot more pronounced of late, so these moves should only be as expected and it would be inadvisable to read too much into what is in essence just a natural and totally predictable market movement.
In fact, we would go as far as to say that despite the excitable newsmongers’ the real issue would be if under these conditions the market didn’t move.
Range: 7025 to (7275) / 7375
Type: On balance only just bearish
For the DJX the decision they had to make about their zone was exactly what we said in our last comment “and therein lies the rub, as at 24500 this index will have to decide whether it stays in its zone, or out of it, and into bearish territory”.
Having recovered on Friday to close at 24580 then there was cause for a degree of optimism, but just like the SPX the open on Monday at 24463, down 117-points, blew that away, as it too opened below their zone.
However, the DJX is now in a slightly different boat as their zone has reverted back to the extreme width we saw in the rollover.
The flipside is that this means it is still inside it.
The issue may be a continuation of the extreme volatility.
For the record it is all a bit odd that this level of activity has resulted in such a huge zone, but this is what the numbers say, which just shows that it never ceases to surprise.
Range: 24000 to 25000
Type: On balance only just fractionally bullish