Nb. Our comment from 05/17/19 (Not published online)
Nb. Our comment on 05/21/19
In our last comment covering the May
expiry we said we expected to see the zone there finish at 2845-2855, which it
The reason we mention this, is because
this expiry, the June triple, is still at the old level, but this is purely due
to the fact that these “biggies” just aren’t so nimble on their feet.
even though it hasn’t changed, please take it for granted that the zone here
should be 2845-2855.
And, although it has just been two
trading days, since we last looked at the ratios there have not been many
Therefore, the fact that so much Y ratio
persists below the zone is not a good thing, and until the zone changes, this
will retard development undoubtedly.
Also, don’t forget this is a five-week
Put these two elements together, and you
will, and currently do, have, 135-points of Y ratio.
And in a triple.
To put this into perspective, normally
we would not expect to see any at all.
On top of this, you should be aware that
the serious R ratios below the zone, do not start until the low 2700’s, and
then, they only go up to R3, an incredibly long way shy of the B level ratio we
would expect to see in a triple.
Above the zone, it is slightly better,
but it still only gets as high as DR ratio, so far from ideal.
So potentially a fantastic trading
expiry, but for asset managers probably a worst-case scenario, as with the
trading range in the Y ratio alone of 2795 all the way up to 2930, you have
nigh on a 5% range.
Assuming this is one-way, as more than
likely, just as in May, it will be one way, than a reverse to cover the other
way, before reversing again for the finish, so easily 10%.
Get your timing wrong when you are considering this degree of percent and it will not look pretty, but for traders, it should be great fun.