Hope you are all enjoying the roller-coaster, which actually has now only got steeper with sharper turns.
For those who like the old technical phrases, extremely volatile with huge potential for whipsaw.
The astute will have noticed that the zone has slipped up, to 2920-2930, but we are not reading too much into this.
Basically, because it is a triple, so the numbers are just far bigger, and that there is still a ridiculously wide Y1 ratio bandwidth, so it’s hardly a big move in ratio terms.
When this index was down 92-points on Friday, the intraday low was 2834.97, which is still 0.51% away from R1, and even with the vega spiking, that’s a close call whether or not R1 at 2820 had any influence.
We think it was probably more to do with Y2 at 25500 on the DJX (intraday low 25507), than R1 here, but who knows it was that close and moving very fast.
The Y ratios may have shifted, as well as the zone, but the headline story here remains the same.
That the Y ratio bandwidth is still a colossal 160-points.
But the fact that there is a Y ratio bandwidth in a triple, also tells you, that there is not a lot of money being put down on the table, which reveals a lot of indecisiveness.
Also, still a very long way to go, and overall activity is still way below even the baby “biggie” back in March, so it is all very thin indeed.
Range: 2920 to 2930
Type: On balance just bearish
Nb. Our comment on 09/06/19
Hopefully you had taken a note of the ratio levels from our last comment.
As, if you had, then on Thursday, when the market was up +48.08-points, at its intraday high of 2985.86, then you would have realised that was it testing R1 ratio, and was therefore at the top of its Y ratio bandwidth.
This should have set off the alarm bells, and if you didn’t bank it, then hopefully, at the very least, you would have severely tightened your rolling stop, so you wouldn’t give too much back.
Now, the big question is whether or not the bulls are that convinced to buy all the futures being forced onto the market by the dynamic delta at R1.
The good news is, that the ratios are firmer below the zone.
Also, in the bullish camp, is R2 slipping to 3005.
On the bearish side, the Y ratio bandwidth is still stupidly huge, and unchanged.
R1 hasn’t budged.
Obviously, 2980 is now critical.
Don’t forget, still a full two weeks to go in this expiry, so far from over.