Well it certainly has been a nomadic
zone for the Jan expiry in the FTSE.
In fact, it has changed every time we
have commented, which is actually a reflection on how very low the already minimal
Y level of ratio really is.
This then has led to the fact the zone
could be anywhere from 6650 to 6900.
Of course, this expiry we have already
plumbed the depths of 6536.53 where it took a colossal effort by R3, then at
6550, to turn the tide.
We did mention, that on the flip side,
resistance may be more sensitive, and we have already seen this market test R1
Now, this index is tantalisingly close to its zone, and with just two days to go to the rollover it will be a very nervy time.
We look at the calendar every day but
still the fact it’s the rollover already comes as a surprise.
Doubly so as it has been a very hectic
start to the year already.
Therefore, we suspect, a bit like us,
many participants have been blindsided as this must be the poorest
representation of ratio we have ever seen in the FTSE.
Of course, with March just around the
corner, then it will not be helped with many sitting on their hands as well.
When you couple this with the fact this
is the first, of only four, intermediary to intermediary expiries, then this
just compounds the lack of ratio.
So, what we say above, about a nomadic
zone, then this expiry is not going to be any different.
In fact, if, and that is a very big if,
this index suddenly develops a degree of sensitivity, then it might just trade
within the Y ratio bandwidth.
However, when one realises that this
bandwidth is 650-points wide then one will also realise that R1 will be very
hard pushed to reverse a market that has that much momentum behind it.
And so far, that is pretty much as high
as it goes, scarily.
Seems like the Jan expiry was just the warm-up act for this the Feb expiry.