Nb. Our comment from the 06/18/20 (Not published for the July Expiry)
Nb. Our comment for 06/24/20
And July is picking up exactly where June left off, with it being all about the zone.
Now, first and foremost, the surprise is that the zone is an astonishing 60-points wide.
Not unheard of, but still, very rare and unusual for it to deviate from the standard 10-points.
There are two reasons for this we believe, firstly that it is taking an age to actually make the transition from where it was back on the 18th, to where we flagged it was going to go, 3095-3105.
Secondly, it is symptomatic and just highlights the fact that there is an absolute dearth of ratio around in this, the July expiry, at this point in time.
The good news, is that the zone continues to climb, or at least, good news in the sense this is bullish.
Perhaps bad news for those bulls, is that the Y ratio bandwidth, stretches from 2820 all the way up to 3305, which is practically 500-points.
For those that remember “normal” markets, the amount of times this index went up, or down, to the nearest R levels, then traversed the entire Y ratio bandwidth, to eventually reverse again to end near its zone, what we used to call “a roundtrip”, was very common indeed.
Normally, this would result in 5% to 10% over the course of an expiry.
But were this to happen today, then just the 500-point leg alone is equivalent to 16% almost, and that is madness.
Basically, the last two days have been amazingly timid, as 100-point moves, minimum, here, should really now be expected.
Range: 3105 to 3305
Type: On balance just bearish