Nb. Our comment from the 06/14/21 (Not published)
Nb. Our comment on 06/21/21
The most striking aspect in the July expiry is the fact that the zone is 7050-7150.
This is very significant as at this level the market is currently below it, so by definition in bear territory.
However, it is never that straightforward, today being the first day of the July expiry being the front month, so where the market finished on Friday is, or can be, as much to do with the June expiry than this one.
And in June, over the last couple of days, 6950-7050 was looking a shoe-in to be the next zone.
So, in this context, where the market finished on Friday is just natural, so no bull or bear agenda at all.
Nevertheless, having just said that, if the bulls have any remaining aspirations, they won’t want to stay below the zone for long, if at all.
Therefore, our trading range, shown below, takes on an entirely new perspective, as it has been a very long while since the bears were in charge.
This is again a more normal 4-week expiry, but it is an intermediary, so all the numbers basically drop by about two thirds, so the big question now, is whether or not the market’s sensitivity will also adjust, as it should, but is never guaranteed.
Also, the delta ratio is just below 150, currently standing at 148.9%, so marginally inside the tolerance level, although at this point in the June expiry, when it stood at 178.9%, it didn’t adversely affect the bulls that much, or at least not at the start anyway.
So, 7050 is key, at least this week it will be, otherwise the bears will have a chance to shine, but judging by their absence over the last couple of expiries, it is highly questionable just how aggressive they might actually be.
Range: 6950 to 7050