Nb. Our comment from 04/26/19 (Not
Despite the fact we last published on
the 15th here in the FTSE it has only been seven trading days, but,
of course, in those seven we have started an entirely new expiry, May.
The fact that this market is inside its
zone is a very good thing we feel, giving it room to breathe and move, without
having to test any ratio levels.
It was interesting to see the intraday
highs on the first two days of this expiry being 7528.93 and 7523.79, which, as
you can see from the table above, is tantalisingly close to a test of R2.
This is made all the more significant as
that is a big jump from the minimal Y ratio straight into the mid R ratio,
which don’t forget are exponential.
The real aspect to watch out for is any
breach of the bottom boundary, at 7350, as that is an awful lot of Y ratio
All the way down to 7050 in fact, a
rather worrying 300-points.
Also, noteworthy, is the similarity to
the SPX, in that there is a lot of Y ratio below their zone as well.
Activity, especially for May, and it being an intermediary to intermediary expiry, is surprisingly high, but, overall, it is still a very lopsided expiry and one that is still very underdeveloped.
Activity: Very strong
Nb. Our comment on 04/30/19
Already it seems the zone here in the
FTSE is having a major impact.
On Friday last week the intraday high
was 7442.39, and we are more than happy to call that strike one of the zones
And, yesterday, the market basically
camped out on it for the last two and a half hours of the trading day, so
definitely strike two.
For the record the actual intraday high
Interestingly, the ratios above and
below the zone have slipped.
Below R2 slides to 6900, whereas above
both R3 and DR move out by 50-points.
Nevertheless, the situation remains the
same, as in we believe the best place for this market is in its zone (7350 to
7450), as above it R2 is still waiting to ambush it at 7550, whereas below we
don’t even see the R ratios start until 7050.
So, all in all, if it can hold within its zone, we think it will be doing well, as if it gets aggressive it could easily get a bloody nose, and if that shakes loose the bears then it is a long way down before it will find any ratio support.