Nb. Our comment from 04/09/19
And we were not wrong as 7250 dominated
this index for that week, until Friday 29th when it managed to hold
on for that all important close above it, at 7279.17.
The trouble is that when we last
commented on the FTSE, an entire 10 trading days ago, the ratio landscape has
There is absolutely no point in guessing
when, so we are just going to fast-forward to the end of the next week, Friday
the 5th April, when the close was 7446.87.
More importantly, the intraday high was
7461.39, so we strongly suspect that was this index’s first pop at R3.
However, we would be remiss not to point
out how huge the changes have been, and in fact, so much so, they have
virtually flipped 180 degrees from the 25th March.
Although there is now Y2 above the zone,
what was there back on the 25th is now below the zone, which itself
has leapt 200-points to 7150-7250.
But, the real clincher, is B1 has gone
from above the old zone to now being below it, which signifies that the entire
ratio alignment has totally adjusted.
No wonder it has managed to eventually
achieve what it was threatening to in that very first week.
We would fully anticipate 7450 to slip
to R2, leaving 7500 as the next resistance level.
If this is the case then the trading
range should be 7400 to 7500.
Then, it will be all down to the rate of change in the ratios, especially as the clock is ticking and the expiry is now fast appearing on the horizon.
7450 or 7450
Nb. Our comment on 04/15/19
Well when we made our trading range just
7400 to 7450, we thought the ratios would change sooner rather than later but
it held out all week.
This made last week one of the quietest
this year, with the net move on the week of just minus 14-points.
Despite 7450 getting battered all week
it held, but as you can see R3 has now slipped to 7600, and our trading range
is indeed now 7400 to 7500 just as anticipated.
However, the market is now out of time
as we enter the rollover and expiry, which this week is on the very unusual
This means 7400 is the really critical
level, as below it is now all just Y1.
The good news is, as the ratios have
fallen so far, that the zone is very likely to move up again.
But, even so, the market is still way ahead of where the zone may end up, so it’s going to be an interesting week for sure.