It is the strangest thing as the market in the FTSE is doing everything according to our forecast back on the 20th November.
This is not strange but the fact the ratios are not even acknowledging this move is.
We thought they would try to get the NZ to 7450-7550 (nb 7500 is dead centre) for this exact moment in time, even nailing when they would start the attempt, but as you can see the ratios just haven’t budged.
If everyone is acting like the this for the rollover then the expiry on Friday will be interesting.
Range: 7400 to 7550
Rather a mixed bag in Jan but considering how it has shaped up probably well worth noting.
No change below the zone.
R1 drops to 7550, which means Y2 now extends for 100-points, and R2 firms, or comes in, to 7600.
Basically, it looks like the battle lines have just been drawn for this expiry.
Range: 7450 to 7550
Activity: Very good
The introduction of all that Y1 in the DAX above the NZ evidently affected the market as it managed a decent day enjoying its freedom.
Of course, it is the rollover today so we would fully expect the zone, even though it is now quite a way below this market to have an influence, but as we said “being in Y1 is not too bad on the rollover”.
No changes to any of the ratios and although activity remains at the same decent level today it is of an entirely different nature, being money coming off the table.
Range: 13050 to 13250
Type: On balance just not bullish
Judging by how much the DAX enjoyed the freedom afforded it by the introduction of Y1 in Dec just imagine when Jan takes over and it finds itself in a 400-point wide bandwidth of it.
Still early days of course but when this expiry starts getting populated it is easier to build on, or add to, existing levels so it is perhaps worth noting that there is no Y2 above the zone then the R ratios climb quite quickly.
Range: 13050 to 13450