Nb. Our comment from 06/12/19
You have just got to love these expiries with so much Y ratio in them, even if they are triples.
From the close at 2744.45 on Monday 3rd, right on R2, this market has just pinged all the way up to Y2 at 2905.
What a ride.
A ride you should have expected and hopefully been on.
The worry is that one shouldn’t forget the bears were out in force, as evidenced by the titanic battle this index had with the R2 support level, and it didn’t take much resistance to encourage them.
In fact, all it took was Y2, the first level of resistance, and not a particularly big one at that, but it nevertheless resulted in a 25-point reverse.
The fact that this market hasn’t encountered a R ratio above the zone means we can’t wholeheartedly say the bears are back on top.
However, being in such a huge Y ratio bandwidth, the only thing we can say for certain is that it will be volatile.
And, with the rollover next week the market will need no more encouragement than that to get a head of steam up, so buckle up as this expiry could just be getting going.
Range: 2855 to 2905 / 2930
Type: On balance decently bearish
Nb. Our comment on 06/19/19
Sadly, we missed out on warning you last week that the zone could easily revert back to where it started this expiry at, 2895-2905.
As we have said this really needs to be monitored daily, as judging by the ratio already in situ, this change happened at least a day ago.
So, the end result was a small overshoot, but as today is the rollover it remains to be seen exactly if, or by how much, it will miss.
The very pleasing aspect we did mention last week was that up to then the rally off R2 at 2745 had not encountered a corresponding R ratio.
The nearest was R1 at 2930, also part of our range, which it hit yesterday, with the intraday high of 2930.79.
So far, at least, it is a bit of a lopsided expiry, by that we mean bouncing between R2 and R1, rather than the same levels.
Nevertheless, it is most definitely a R to R expiry, with a good chance of ending in its zone.
So, after a nigh on 200-point journey over the 5-weeks of this expiry it has been down 100-points to R2 then up 200-points to R1, a whopping 10.3%, which in 5-weeks is very decent.
Range: 2905 to 2930
Type: On balance bearish