These are generally a bit more
rip-roaring than intermediaries, just because of their size alone really.
So, the same malaise persists, a
ridiculously wide Y ratio bandwidth.
Therefore, it is going to be simply a
case of whether the DJX retains its bullish blinkers, or, acts normally.
If its normal, then a trading range of the
Y1 ratio bandwidth is more than likely ( a cool 2000-points), and between the
R’s is not unheard of, which is actually not that much wider.
Should be great fun.
However, worth noting is the significance of 25400, in both expiries.
to 25400 or 25400
And 25400 was very significant indeed.
The real test was on Thursday 14th
Feb when the intraday low was 25308, but more importantly, the close was 25439,
so the fact it was fought over and the bulls won tells its own story.
The first point to address is the fact
that last time the zone was 24400-24600, but at that very same time, the Feb
expiries zone was 25100-25400, so March just basically joined Feb’s, so no
surprise or drama there.
Fast forward to the current, and
although R1 is at 26200, it is plainly obvious to us this has been fighting a tactical
retreat, and at least from 26100.
26100 was where R2 was back in the
rollover, so has always been a significant level.
Anyway, seeing this means we now
perfectly understand why the DJX’s intraday highs since Friday have been 26052,
26241, 26155 and 26039.
Also, why the close on those days have
been 26031, 26091, 26057 and 25985.
We don’t see the move up in the zone
here as bullish, more like a correction, but the receding R ratios are,
although the failure of this index to surmount the futures selling generated by
the dynamic delta isn’t.
On top of which, the Y ratio bandwidth
is now 2800-points wide, so the ratios certainly are not filling in underneath.
So, just like the SPX, we are exceedingly nervous….and still two weeks to go.