The DJX has been the bullish stalwart for the entire expiry and on Friday was the only one to finish up just to prove the point.
However unlike the SPX here activity has certainly not been stimulated, in fact we are getting so many of these now we should perhaps create a new category “only just registered”.
Still quite a bit of headroom before it hits the R ratios, however what we said on Friday still holds true as the SPX ruled the rollover (nb. its NZ change today) whereas the DJX ruled the actual expiry.
Which this week in the last expiry proved very exciting from the Wednesday on as the DJX gave up 350 points.
Range: 21700 to 22100
Type: Not bearish
The most striking aspect for October is the fact that this zone stretches for 300 points.
Of course one has to go back to well before Trump to find the time that this index bothered with its zone and in fact it was this index that was always the more likely to remain zone bound, so times have truly changed.
Still early days but even for an intermediary expiry there is still too much Y ratio present.
Range: 21600 to 21900
The NDX was the big faller on Friday losing almost 51 points which rather neatly took it back inside its zone, so it looks like the zone won, at least round 1.
Of course that was after 2 tests of Y2 last week on the Tuesday and Thursday.
Also like the SPX it has stimulated activity; however that index didn’t lose almost 1% so this is only what we would expect given the move and where it is in the expiry.
The real trick is going to be holding it in or at least near its zone for Wednesday as it looks a little early for us.
Range: 5875 to 5925
Of course it is still early days but even accounting for that this is a very meagre amount of ratio for Oct, even after allowing for the fact it is a five week expiry.
The NZ is slightly ahead of Sept but we wouldn’t read too much into this as the ratios are so thin out there a good twitch should see it move.
Unless this situation improves dramatically over the next few days we are afraid it will be back to skating on ice again.
Range: 5900 to 5950
Type: On balance only just bearish