Category: Uncategorized

April 9th, 2019 by R1chard

Nb. Our comment from 03/25/19

It is a real shame we didn’t publish last week, as it was blatantly obvious to us the FTSE was an accident waiting to happen.

The only surprise was that the FTSE got as far as it did, and 7350, or R3 to us, played a pivotal role last week.

The intraday high on Tuesday was 7350.10, on Wednesday it got up to 7341.57 for its second attempt, and then on Thursday, strike 3, it peaked at 7370.61.

However, the most telling aspect was the close on Thursday at 7355.31, and the fact that R3 wasn’t retreating, so the bulls were certainly keen, but, as we say, it was an accident waiting to happen.

Of course, had the other markets not been in similar circumstances, then the FTSE may well have gone on to test DR, but then it’s all about risk and reward.

Which to us, with a 200-point Y ratio bandwidth above a zone that is way down there at 6950-7050, the risks were certainly at the top end of the scale.

7250 is now the new critical level.

Range:            7050  to  7250

Activity:          Average

Type:              On balance bearish

Nb. Our comment on 04/09/19

And we were not wrong as 7250 dominated this index for that week, until Friday 29th when it managed to hold on for that all important close above it, at 7279.17.

The trouble is that when we last commented on the FTSE, an entire 10 trading days ago, the ratio landscape has transformed.

There is absolutely no point in guessing when, so we are just going to fast-forward to the end of the next week, Friday the 5th April, when the close was 7446.87.

More importantly, the intraday high was 7461.39, so we strongly suspect that was this index’s first pop at R3.

However, we would be remiss not to point out how huge the changes have been, and in fact, so much so, they have virtually flipped 180 degrees from the 25th March.

Although there is now Y2 above the zone, what was there back on the 25th is now below the zone, which itself has leapt 200-points to 7150-7250.

But, the real clincher, is B1 has gone from above the old zone to now being below it, which signifies that the entire ratio alignment has totally adjusted.

No wonder it has managed to eventually achieve what it was threatening to in that very first week.

We would fully anticipate 7450 to slip to R2, leaving 7500 as the next resistance level.

If this is the case then the trading range should be 7400 to 7500.

Then, it will be all down to the rate of change in the ratios, especially as the clock is ticking and the expiry is now fast appearing on the horizon.

Range:          7400  to  7450        or        7450  to  7600

Activity:        Average

Type:            Bearish

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April 4th, 2019 by R1chard

Nb. Our comment from 03/27/19

The SPX mirrors our sentiment from London, as we wished we had published last week, although it was perhaps not quite so compelling here.

Although, when one gets to see all three US indices together, then the argument becomes more convincing.

The pertinent bit is that R1 back on the 20th was at 2845, and that very day, after we had published mind, the intraday high was 2843.54.

Today, R1 is at 2855, but as the intraday highs on Thursday and Friday last week were 2860.31 and 2846.16 respectively, so we suspect that change has happened this week.

Worth noting that R2 has been at 2865 throughout.

No harm in the bulls being aggressive, but ultimately, they will have their limit as to how many futures they can buy that have been forced out due to the dynamic delta.

This trip, this looks like R2.

So, what else can the ratios tell us?

The upside is what you can see, but below the zone there is another story altogether.

If there was a strong bullish upswell we would expect the ratios down here to strengthen (come in), so we are nervously watching Y2 weaken (move out) to 2720.

R1 has held its own at 2695, but if the bulls were in total control, as we say, that should be rising.

This, also, throws up the intriguing possibility of the zone moving down to 2770-2780, which would be bearish of course.

So, to us, it is not all bullish here, and with 150-points of Y ratio still, the risks are plain for everyone to see.

But, as always, in the US, it best to check if the DJX has an agenda first, as you can’t escape the correlation naturally.

Range:            2805  to  2855

Activity:          Average

Type:               On balance just bearish

Nb. Our comment on 04/04/19

The SPX is still all about R2.

At the start of this week the intraday high on Monday was 2869.40, so we suspect the hitherto unchanged R2 was still at 2865.

However, that day the market closed at 2867.19, which is a fairly blatant sign that either the market had breached R2, or, and more likely, that it had slipped.

Today, it is at 2885, and as yesterday’s intraday high was 2885.25, it’s a fair assumption that it was here then.

Obviously, it is slipping, and this index just keeps banging on that door until it opens and move back to the next line of resistance.

It will probably hold in the morning, but we would be rather more circumspect later on.

2895 is the next R2 line of resistance, but 2905 is where it takes a big step-up.

But, don’t forget, next week is the rollover and expiry AND it is a 4-day week.

And, more importantly, the zone is still way down at 2795-2805, and is sandwiched in a sea of Y ratio, so if someone says “boo” to this market, there is no support underneath for a very long way indeed.

However, as always, best to keep an eye on the DJX as they seem to be the ones happy to force the pace.

Range:           2860  to  2885

Activity:         Poor

Type:              On balance just bearish

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March 29th, 2019 by R1chard

Nb. Comment from 20/03/19

Not published

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Nb. Comment on 29/03/19

Again, we wish the table above for the NDX had been published back on the 20th, as just like the SPX and the DJX there were significant ratio levels that had to be contended with.

For the NDX it was right from the very start, as on that very first day this index closed right on Y2 at 7325.

And 7325 has been the constant theme for the past two weeks, and if you knew it was where Y2 was, and hence all that futures activity, then the last two weeks would have made a lot more sense.

Monday 18th the close was 7326.28, next day’s intraday low was 7321.93 having opened nearer 7360.

Wednesday’s intraday low was another test, being 7318.42, then it tried to break free, but as you can see the ratios were just not shifting, so by Friday it was back to Y2 with the close at 7326.06.

Of course, that was the day it dumped 167.21-points, so it probably would have been nice to know, that just like London, it was an accident waiting to happen.

Although, having fought through the hard yards, it is worth pointing out, and please see our previous commentary on this subject, that the Thursday immediately before this big dump, the DJX was hitting the top of their zone, intraday high 26009, and the SPX was meddling with R2, with their intraday high of 2860.31.

This week, 7325, has been significantly involved as well, suffice it to say Monday’s close was 7316.96 and yesterday’s 7320.47.

Nevertheless, at the end of the day, here we are at the midpoint of this expiry, which incidentally, closes a day early, and the ratios are still seriously underdeveloped.

So, just like the DJX, if this index gets a head of steam up, which is very possible in the run up to the rollover and expiry, it really could motor.

However, with R1 lurking up at 7600, and Y2 now in-between, it will find life a lot easier going south than it will north, but the bulls have already set out their stall, getting it as high as 7505.41, so they will have to be taken out first, and with the lack of ratio meaning a general lack of interest, that may not be so easy in itself.

Range:            7225  to  7325        or        7325  to  7600                    

Activity:          Moderate

Type:              Bearish     

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March 28th, 2019 by R1chard

Nb. Comment from 03/20/19

Did not publish

Range:                 

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Nb. Comment on 03/28/19

Well for the DJX it certainly is back to basics and we are seeing again a typical post triple type expiry.

Or, to be more exact, with nothing happening.

And, more to the point, by comparing the 20th to the 28th you can see how very little has changed.

And the most important constant was evidently the top of the zone here, 26000, as, so far at least, it has caught the intraday high as well as the expiry high, of 26109.

Worth noting, is on that day this index closed at 25887, and that two days later it went back for another bite, with the intraday high of 26009, before again capitulating.

However, the most important aspect is that the zone is still a massive 1000-points wide.

So, all well and good when it is all relatively peaceful and calm, but in the build up and into the rollover and expiry, if this doesn’t change, then volatility could come storming back with a vengeance.

So, all you traders out there, start sharpening your knives.

On top of which, and this also relies on the other US indices, that if it does gain traction and momentum, then that is a wickedly wide Y Ratio bandwidth, so it really could cut loose, in either direction or just whipsaw very violently.

Range:           25000  to  26000   

Activity:         Moderate

Type:              Bullish

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March 27th, 2019 by R1chard

Nb. Our comment from 03/20/19

Not published

Range:            

Activity:          

Type:    

           

Nb. Our comment on 03/27/19

The SPX mirrors our sentiment from London, as we wished we had published last week, although it was perhaps not quite so compelling here.

Although, when one gets to see all three US indices together, then the argument becomes more convincing.

The pertinent bit is that R1 back on the 20th was at 2845, and that very day, after we had published mind, the intraday high was 2843.54.

Today, R1 is at 2855, but as the intraday highs on Thursday and Friday last week were 2860.31 and 2846.16 respectively, so we suspect that change has happened this week.

Worth noting that R2 has been at 2865 throughout.

No harm in the bulls being aggressive, but ultimately, they will have their limit as to how many futures they can buy that have been forced out due to the dynamic delta.

This trip, this looks like R2.

So, what else can the ratios tell us?

The upside is what you can see, but below the zone there is another story altogether.

If there was a strong bullish upswell we would expect the ratios down here to strengthen (come in), so we are nervously watching Y2 weaken (move out) to 2720.

R1 has held its own at 2695, but if the bulls were in total control, as we say, that should be rising.

This, also, throws up the intriguing possibility of the zone moving down to 2770-2780, which would be bearish of course.

So, to us, it is not all bullish here, and with 150-points of Y ratio still, the risks are plain for everyone to see.

But, as always, in the US, it best to check if the DJX has an agenda first, as you can’t escape the correlation naturally.

Range:           2805  to  2855

Activity:         Average

Type:              On balance just bearish

Posted in Uncategorized

March 25th, 2019 by R1chard

Nb. Our comment from 03/21/19

Not published

Range:             

Activity:         

Type:      

       

Nb. Our comment on 03/25/19

It is a real shame we didn’t publish last week, as it was blatantly obvious to us the FTSE was an accident waiting to happen.

The only surprise was that the FTSE got as far as it did, and 7350, or R3 to us, played a pivotal role last week.

The intraday high on Tuesday was 7350.10, on Wednesday it got up to 7341.57 for its second attempt, and then on Thursday, strike 3, it peaked at 7370.61.

However, the most telling aspect was the close on Thursday at 7355.31, and the fact that R3 wasn’t retreating, so the bulls were certainly keen, but, as we say, it was an accident waiting to happen.

Of course, had the other markets not been in similar circumstances, then the FTSE may well have gone on to test DR, but then it’s all about risk and reward.

Which to us, with a 200-point Y ratio bandwidth above a zone that is way down there at 6950-7050, the risks were certainly at the top end of the scale.

7250 is now the new critical level.

Range:          7050  to  7250

Activity:        Average

Type:            On balance bearish

Posted in Uncategorized

March 8th, 2019 by R1chard

Nb. Comment from 02/28/19

And 25400 was very significant indeed.

The real test was on Thursday 14th Feb when the intraday low was 25308, but more importantly, the close was 25439, so the fact it was fought over and the bulls won tells its own story.

The first point to address is the fact that last time the zone was 24400-24600, but at that very same time, the Feb expiries zone was 25100-25400, so March just basically joined Feb’s, so no surprise or drama there.

Fast forward to the current, and although R1 is at 26200, it is plainly obvious to us this has been fighting a tactical retreat, and at least from 26100.

26100 was where R2 was back in the rollover, so has always been a significant level.

Anyway, seeing this means we now perfectly understand why the DJX’s intraday highs since Friday have been 26052, 26241, 26155 and 26039.

Also, why the close on those days have been 26031, 26091, 26057 and 25985.

We don’t see the move up in the zone here as bullish, more like a correction, but the receding R ratios are, although the failure of this index to surmount the futures selling generated by the dynamic delta isn’t.

On top of which, the Y ratio bandwidth is now 2800-points wide, so the ratios certainly are not filling in underneath.

So, just like the SPX, we are exceedingly nervous….and still two weeks to go.

Range:            25300  to  26200     

Activity:          Moderate

Type:               On balance bearish

Nb. Comment from 03/08/19

The most pleasing aspect about our comment back on the 28th February was our trading range of 25300 to 26200.

Since then, the intraday high has been 26155, and the intraday low from yesterday was 25352, and you can’t say fairer than that.

Actually, you can, as back when this index was persistently trying to get above R1 our zone was lurking down at 25100-25300 (hence the bottom of the range of course) and not many would have thought that just before the rollover this index would be even close.

Anyway, we are not counting our proverbial chickens yet, as the observant will have noticed that in today’s ratio table above, R1 has gone, leaving R2 at 26600 as the new first line of resistance.

This will bring a whole new level of significance to the zone, and perhaps 25100.

First up, of course, it has to get back into its zone, and it might even be willing to relax in it until the rollover on Wednesday.

If not, then, in one of those potentially seminal moments, whether it breaks out above (bullish territory), or below and into bear territory.

We are not going to guess what will happen, but you now know the significance of 25300 and also 25100, so you can react accordingly.

Range:           25100  to  25300        or        25300  to  26600   

Activity:         Average

Type:              On balance only just bullish

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March 8th, 2019 by R1chard

Nb. Our comment from 03/01/19

The fact there has been no change in the ratios is not a surprise, it is a triple after all, so it takes a lot to shift them.

Furthermore, this is more representative of a triple, with no Y ratio, which just highlights how strange the US indices are at present.

Nevertheless, it is a fantastic way to highlight the impact of the ratios and the corresponding dynamic delta, as, so far, it is just all about the price action at or around the unchanged ratio levels.

First up, day one, 18th Feb, and the FTSE intraday high was 7242.09.

Significantly, it hasn’t gone there again, so, expiry high so far as well.

The top of the zone at 7150 was the next significant level, for the remainder of last week, with three intraday day lows finding support there.

Tuesday this week, 26th, the close was 7151.12, or strike 5 by now.

Yesterday, 28th, the intraday low was 7041.03 (bottom boundary).

So, just take a note of where the ratios are and watch the market interact upon encounter, simple.

Range:            7050  to  7150 

Activity:          Very very poor

Type:              Bullish

Nb. Our comment on 03/08/19

Well, it still is all about the upper boundary of the zone in the FTSE.

As you know how significant 7150 is, then just by watching the market around it you can readily see that there are some who really want it above it.

Case in point was yesterday’s real time close, which was 7147.12, or back inside the zone, but the closing auction (when the futures are closed of course) managed to add just over 10-points, conveniently taking the market back above the boundary.

All in all, it is certainly going to make for a very interesting rollover next week.

With the expiry on Friday 15th, and normally in these big triple witching expiries, at this particular time, it is virtually impossible to keep things calm.

Don’t forget this expiry started with this market at 7236.68, so in almost three weeks it has fallen 79.13-points.

It will be very interesting if it ever goes back up there to challenge R3 again, or for just the second time.

The desperation to keep it above the zone suggests this is the intention.

We suspect the real problem has been since the DJX hit their R ratios at 26200 at the same time the SPX hit theirs just above 2800 the FTSE has been trying to swim against the tide.

Still plenty of life in March yet, and the most exciting week could easily be yet to come.

Range:          7050  to  7150        or        7150  to  7250

Activity:        Very poor

Type:            Bearish

Posted in Uncategorized

March 6th, 2019 by R1chard

What we said last time:

Obviously, the zone has exceeded expectations, albeit had we published in the last ten trading days this further move would have been apparent, it now being at 2745-2755.

Needless to add, with the zone moving, the R ratios had to recede.

The real question is looking forward, and it is all about R1 now, as it held yesterday (intraday high 2803.12) but was severely tested on Monday with the intraday high of 2813.49.

So, it has held, but under huge pressure, and next visit would be strike 3.

Furthermore, don’t forget this is a triple, and in these biggie’s R1 doesn’t normally carry too much weight.

Having said that, the fact that this is a triple and we only go as high as R3, on both sides, is very alarming, as historically, if this index gets trending, it takes at least DR to act as moderator, and again, this holds true for both directions.

The fact that the R ratios are receding and the zone is climbing is bullish, but what we would really like to see is the ratios below the zone climbing, which they have, a bit, but the Y ratio bandwidth is still 185-points.

This is what it was back on the 13th Feb.

The fact this expiry is so underdeveloped coupled with such a ludicrously wide Y ratio bandwidth means we are exceedingly nervous.

The trading range below reflects the zone, as that should offer support.

Our only surprise is that this index isn’t whipsawing around by 2% or 3% on a daily basis, which makes us suspect that one of the other two must be interacting with their ratios.

Range:            2755  to  2825

Activity:          Moderate

Type:               On balance only just bearish

As it turned out both the other two were interacting with their ratios, but probably most notable was the DJX with R1 at 26200.

Also, as it turned out, a 50-point whipsaw on Monday neatly summed up our last comment.

The reversal on Monday was attributed to trade talks, but we see this so often that logically the common denominator over the last 10 years has been the ratios, as the market opened up 10.68-points, inched a bit higher, then fell 50-points.

Now, was it the futures selling generated by the dynamic delta as this index hit R1 (nb. Exactly the same applies to the DJX and 26200) that caused the market to come off and the story was added after as the explanation, or really, did the trade talks contain that much new news or a surprise, and at that precise moment when it turned?

You will find, every time, the answer is no.

People need to have a reason for the futures selling, it really is as simple as that.

Eventually, hopefully, they will realise these ratios and dynamic delta exist.

Back to the matter in hand, and the Y Ratio bandwidth is now 160-points, so the risk remains.

The appearance of Y1 above the zone means it may move up again.

So, bullish, but not very committed, and the downside risk is eye-watering.

To add a little bit more spice to it all, it’s the rollover next week as well.

Range:           2755  to  2805 / 2830

Activity:         Poor

Type:              Neutral

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March 5th, 2019 by R1chard
NDX Ratio Table 5th March 2019

As mentioned previously this would be where our last comment of the NDX would be, but as we haven’t covered it for so long this is irrelevant.

Also, why the first column in the above table is blank.

Range:            

Activity:          

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One of the main reasons we stopped covering this index was because nobody was playing in it.

One glance at the above table will show you that hasn’t changed at all, and don’t forget this is a triple, so meant to be a “biggie”, ha ha.

All last week the intraday high was either 7125 or 7150, so for us it has been banging its head on Y2 for quite a few days now, and, interestingly, it was only on Friday that this index managed to close above 7125 for the first time this expiry.

So, to fight back yesterday, from a drop of 132.54-points, to finish virtually unchanged, shows there is some commitment left in the bulls.

And, to be fair, we can hardly claim derivative dominance, especially considering the only R ratio in existence doesn’t appear until 7300, so it’s not as if they have to fight particularly hard, in fact, a gentle shove would be about enough.

At least, there are people playing in the other two, but strikingly all three are very similar in that they are trying to push ahead, but struggling against what is fairly minimal ratio resistance, and all the while standing at the top of a chasm.

So, all are very susceptible to anyone saying “boo”.

Range:            6825  to  7125        or        7125  to  7300                    

Activity:          Average

Type:              Neutral     

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