Category: Uncategorized

August 5th, 2019 by R1chard

Nb. Our comment from the 07/29/19

 

It has been a long time since our last comment, 14 trading days to be precise.

The point being, that even with virtually 3-weeks gone, and an expiry in between, not a lot has changed.

Basically, back on the 8th July, in the July expiry, the market closed at 7549.27, which was right at the top end of our Y2 ratio bandwidth, which went from 7450 to 7550.

The FTSE then spent the next two weeks having a running battle with the R2 ratio that kicked in at 7550.

On the 22nd July we saw the start of the August expiry, and guess what.

In this expiry, the Y2 ratio bandwidth stretches from 7500 to 7550, which is where R2 resides again.

And, the coincidence doesn’t end there, as the market closed at 7549.06, essentially the same as three weeks ago.

Coincidence or not, but for us R2 has been the constant factor throughout.

Of course, last week was all about 7550 as well, or again the FTSE battling R2.

There is absolutely no doubt that this market wants to go better, it just has a lot of futures it has to absorb first, courtesy of the level of dynamic delta brought about by the R2 ratio.

The real aspect to be very aware of, is that the nearest R ratio going the other way is at 7350.

There is the zone in between of course, which will provide support, but with three weeks left on this expiry there is still ample opportunity for this market to experience a scare at some point.

 

Range:            7450  to  7550        or        7550  to  7600          

Activity:          Average     

Type:              Neutral           

 

 

Nb. Our comment on 08/05/19

 

When the R2 dam broke it certainly exploded, and the FTSE having been pent up and penned in for 4 entire weeks took full advantage.

Although, the official open on Monday 29th July was 7549.06, being Friday’s close, it was obvious to anyone with just a passing knowledge of markets, that it was in reality it was an awful lot higher.

The intraday high so far this expiry is 7727.49, which is a knee-jerk reaction, and sadly one that is quite common in 100 stock indices these days, as what with weightings being what they are, all it takes is one, or two, of the heavyweight sectors to go a bit ballistic and the market overall gets skewed.

But, above DR ratio and nearing B1, was just the proverbial accident waiting to happen, and those who were aware of the ratio levels should have, at the very least, bought some insurance, so as not to be caught out.

On Monday the intraday low was 7397.91, which makes this definitely strike one, the first test of the bottom boundary of the zone.

This makes 7400 of major importance, not just as a support level, but if the market closes below it then it is into bear territory, so the whole picture changes.

The good news, is that if it holds, then the upper boundary is the next target.

It all just depends on how much of a bloody nose the bulls have got.

If, the bottom boundary, doesn’t hold, and it’s only Y1 below there after all, then the next support is R1 at 7350.

With two weeks still to go in this expiry there is plenty of life left yet, and with these sorts of moves, it is more than capable of anything yet.

 

Range:            7350  to  7400        or        7400  to  7500         

Activity:          Poor    

Type:              On balance bearish          

Posted in Uncategorized

July 29th, 2019 by R1chard

Nb. Our comment on 07/29/19

 

It has been a long time since our last comment, 14 trading days to be precise.

The point being, that even with virtually 3-weeks gone, and an expiry in between, not a lot has changed.

Basically, back on the 8th July, in the July expiry, the market closed at 7549.27, which was right at the top end of our Y2 ratio bandwidth, which went from 7450 to 7550.

The FTSE then spent the next two weeks having a running battle with the R2 ratio that kicked in at 7550.

On the 22nd July we saw the start of the August expiry, and guess what.

In this expiry, the Y2 ratio bandwidth stretches from 7500 to 7550, which is where R2 resides again.

And, the coincidence doesn’t end there, as the market closed at 7549.06, essentially the same as three weeks ago.

Coincidence or not, but for us R2 has been the constant factor throughout.

Of course, last week was all about 7550 as well, or again the FTSE battling R2.

There is absolutely no doubt that this market wants to go better, it just has a lot of futures it has to absorb first, courtesy of the level of dynamic delta brought about by the R2 ratio.

The real aspect to be very aware of, is that the nearest R ratio going the other way is at 7350.

There is the zone in between of course, which will provide support, but with three weeks left on this expiry there is still ample opportunity for this market to experience a scare at some point.

 

Range:            7450  to  7550        or        7550  to  7600          

Activity:          Average     

Type:              Neutral          

Posted in Uncategorized

July 11th, 2019 by R1chard

Nb. Our comment from 07/03/19

 

Well, the “great unknown” has been answered as the intraday high here was 2977.93.

Back on the 25th June R1 was standing at 2970, and today it is 2980, so on Monday the 1st it was probably about half way between the two.

Therefore, we see that as a test of R1, not a breach.

Otherwise, it is looking good, as the zone looks set to move up to 2920-2930, obviously the ratio above the zone are moving out (hence the R1 drift), and as you can see in the table above, they coming in below the zone.

All three are bullish signs.

So, the only problem, is are the bulls that committed that they will buy all those futures forced onto the market through the dynamic delta at R1?

And, now R2 is back to 3005, it is less than 1% above R1, so two hurdles very close together.

The cynics might say, yet another record high on the 4th July, and it happens more often than not, so it’s a tough one to judge, as historically, when so many are away from their desks, it can get a little out of kilter.

But, R2 was enough to stop the triple witching June expiry, both as support and as resistance, so we have to say it should prove too much for July.

And, despite the ratios coming in below the zone, the R ratios down there don’t even start until you hit 2820, and that’s a very long way away indeed.

 

 

Range:            2905  to  2980

Activity:          Moderate         

Type:              On balance only just bearish

 

 

 

                         

Nb. Our comment on 07/11/19

 

Well we got the move up in the zone, and a bit higher than expected as well.

Well, it is higher now, but it is extremely likely that 2925-2930 was a stepping stone, just between our publications.

So, all three bullish signs remain in place, upwardly mobile zone, strengthening ratios below the zone and weakening ones above it.

But, so does the fact that the nearest corresponding ratio below the zone doesn’t appear until 2845, almost 150-points away.

But compare the two tables above, and from a ratio stance, nothing at all has changed, as it has been the ratios that have shifted rather than the market itself being the aggressor.

Regarding the ratios it is worth pointing out that the type is very adamant, and because we can see the actual numbers, we can say it is all very one-sided indeed.

So, all we can say, is go with the flow, but keep your stops very tight, as when a market get fearless like now, and with the rollover next week, just the slightest scare could have enormous effect. Well, a 150-point effect anyway.

 

Range:            2955  to  3005           

Activity:          Moderate       

Type:              Bearish

Posted in Uncategorized

July 8th, 2019 by R1chard

Nb. Our comment from 06/27/19

 

We have to mention the June expiry before we get on to July, and at the start it was all about the bottom of its zone, 7150.

In the middle, it was all about the top of its zone, 7250, and at the end it was the top of the first ratio bandwidth above their zone, or in other words, 7450.

The intraday highs on the last four days being 7469.19, 7454.93, 7460.83 and 7456.79, but always closing below.

Also, the isolated highs do not do justice to how much of a pitched battle it was at that level throughout those respective days.

More importantly, July’s zone has conveniently adapted, as naturally it would, after all, the ratios are a direct reflection of business done.

By comparing the two tables above you can discern in which direction the ratios are moving, which in turn, denotes increasing or decreasing levels of support and resistance.

The most blatantly obvious is the appearance of Y1 below the zone.

Further down from that the support ratios have actually increased, but you can’t miss the fact that these levels are a lot smaller and a lot further away than the resistance levels above the zone.

Obviously, in the meantime, we expect this index to be zone-bound for a while.

However, eventually, it is likely to breakout, and when it does the ratio levels above the zone ratchet up very quickly.

And for those who need clarification, then above the zone you hit R1 after 50-points, at 7500, whereas, below the zone, the corresponding R1 is 200-points below the zone.

So, as it stands, the downside risk is considerable, and the upside is limited.

Especially, with the jump from R1 straight to R3, remembering these ratios are exponential.

Therefore, don’t be fooled by this quiet start, as the potential for big moves is certainly there.

 

Range:             7350  to  7450   

Activity:            Average

Type:               On balance just fractionally bearish          

 

 

 

Nb. Our comment on 07/08/19

 

Well we certainly got our breakout, but even we were surprised by how aggressive the FTSE has been.

To recap, the first week of this expiry the FTSE was stuck in its zone.

This last week has been all about trying to get past the R ratios.

By comparing the two tables above you can see just how dramatic the moves in the ratios has been.

In a nutshell, there have risen below and fallen away above, both of which are bullish.

However, having been above 7600 this index has already beaten R2, and quite possibly even tested the retreating R3.

All far too aggressive for us, and therefore just an accident waiting to happen.

Obviously, 7550 is now critical.

Above it and its battling R2 all the way, but below and it is now all Y ratio back down to the top of the zone, at 7450.

So, all well and good if it can maintain this enthusiasm for buying futures, being generated by the dynamic delta, but if that evaporates, then it is in for a very sudden and bearish surprise.

 

Range:             7450  to  7550        or        7550  to  7650          

Activity:            Average     

Type:                Bearish     

Posted in Uncategorized

July 6th, 2019 by R1chard

Nb. Our comment from 06/25/19

 

It will be interesting to see if the July expiry will carry the same aggression as June’s did.

On which subject, we did get R2 ratio all the way up to the corresponding R2 ratio, with the intraday high of 2958.06 on Thursday, so that made it a perfectly balanced expiry.

Sadly, the only aspect missing was the finish in its zone.

Looking forward, into July, then a quick comparison between the two tables above will tell you that the ratio below the zone has come in considerably, whereas above it, this has been far more tentative.

This is backed up by, not only the high level of activity, but also by its type.

So, the only real question that remains is how aggressive the bulls will be able to be now it’s a new trip.

Historically, if the triple can only get up to R2, then an intermediate expiry should struggle with even R1.

Rather oddly, and against most other market commentators, we see these markets as behaving perfectly rationally.

In fact, were the index not to travel the length of their Y ratio bandwidth, then we would find this weird, no matter how wide it is.

In fact, in a triple, it is very rare that you even get a 20-point Y ratio bandwidth, let alone the 150-points we saw in June.

However, in intermediates, then such wide bandwidths are far more common.

Furthermore, coming up against the naturally occurring dynamic delta occasioned by hitting R2 and reversing, is, again, perfectly rational.

Pushing through, to DR or even the B ratios, is when the market is irrational, as it would be ignoring all that futures activity in the opposite direction.

To put all this into plain English, then for this expiry, we would fully expect a trading range of 2970 all the way down to 2795.

Hopefully, then back up to finish in the zone by the 17th July.

The great unknown, is whether it will take R1, R2 or perhaps even higher.

But, at the end of the day, you at least know where those levels are currently.

 

Range:             2905  to  2955 / 2970

Activity:            Strong   

Type:                On balance bearish

 

                         

Nb. Our comment on 07/03/19

 

Well, the “great unknown” has been answered as the intraday high here was 2977.93.

Back on the 25th June R1 was standing at 2970, and today it is 2980, so on Monday the 1st it was probably about half way between the two.

Therefore, we see that as a test of R1, not a breach.

Otherwise, it is looking good, as the zone looks set to move up to 2920-2930, obviously the ratio above the zone are moving out (hence the R1 drift), and as you can see in the table above, they coming in below the zone.

All three are bullish signs.

So, the only problem, is are the bulls that committed that they will buy all those futures forced onto the market through the dynamic delta at R1?

And, now R2 is back to 3005, it is less than 1% above R1, so two hurdles very close together.

The cynics might say, yet another record high on the 4th July, and it happens more often than not, so it’s a tough one to judge, as historically, when so many are away from their desks, it can get a little out of kilter.

But, R2 was enough to stop the triple witching June expiry, both as support and as resistance, so we have to say it should prove too much for July.

And, despite the ratios coming in below the zone, the R ratios down there don’t even start until you hit 2820, and that’s a very long way away indeed.

 

Range:             2905  to  2980           

Activity:            Moderate       

Type:                On balance only just bearish

Posted in Uncategorized

June 27th, 2019 by R1chard

Nb. Our comment from 06/21/19 (Not published)

 

Range:                         

Activity:         

Type:             

 

 

 

Nb. Our comment on 06/27/19

 

We have to mention the June expiry before we get on to July, and at the start it was all about the bottom of its zone, 7150.

In the middle, it was all about the top of its zone, 7250, and at the end it was the top of the first ratio bandwidth above their zone, or in other words, 7450.

The intraday highs on the last four days being 7469.19, 7454.93, 7460.83 and 7456.79, but always closing below.

Also, the isolated highs do not do justice to how much of a pitched battle it was at that level throughout those respective days.

More importantly, July’s zone has conveniently adapted, as naturally it would, after all, the ratios are a direct reflection of business done.

By comparing the two tables above you can discern in which direction the ratios are moving, which in turn, denotes increasing or decreasing levels of support and resistance.

The most blatantly obvious is the appearance of Y1 below the zone.

Further down from that the support ratios have actually increased, but you can’t miss the fact that these levels are a lot smaller and a lot further away than the resistance levels above the zone.

Obviously, in the meantime, we expect this index to be zone-bound for a while.

However, eventually, it is likely to breakout, and when it does the ratio levels above the zone ratchet up very quickly.

And for those who need clarification, then above the zone you hit R1 after 50-points, at 7500, whereas, below the zone, the corresponding R1 is 200-points below the zone.

So, as it stands, the downside risk is considerable, and the upside is limited.

Especially, with the jump from R1 straight to R3, remembering these ratios are exponential.

Therefore, don’t be fooled by this quiet start, as the potential for big moves is certainly there.

 

Range:            7350  to  7450          

Activity:          Average     

Type:              On balance just fractionally bearish 

Posted in Uncategorized

June 25th, 2019 by R1chard

 

 

 

Nb. Our comment from 06/19/19 (not published)

 

Range:           

Activity:           

Type:             

 

 

 

Nb. Our comment on 06/25/19

 

It will be interesting to see if the July expiry will carry the same aggression as June’s did.

On which subject, we did get R2 ratio all the way up to the corresponding R2 ratio, with the intraday high of 2958.06 on Thursday, so that made it a perfectly balanced expiry.

Sadly, the only aspect missing was the finish in its zone.

Looking forward, into July, then a quick comparison between the two tables above will tell you that the ratio below the zone has come in considerably, whereas above it, this has been far more tentative.

This is backed up by, not only the high level of activity, but also by its type.

So, the only real question that remains is how aggressive the bulls will be able to be now it’s a new trip.

Historically, if the triple can only get up to R2, then an intermediate expiry should struggle with even R1.

Rather oddly, and against most other market commentators, we see these markets as behaving perfectly rationally.

In fact, were the index not to travel the length of their Y ratio bandwidth, then we would find this weird, no matter how wide it is.

In fact, in a triple, it is very rare that you even get a 20-point Y ratio bandwidth, let lone the 150-points we saw in June.

However, in intermediates, then such wide bandwidths are far more common.

Furthermore, coming up against the naturally occurring dynamic delta occasioned by hitting R2 and reversing, is, again, perfectly rational.

Pushing through, to DR or even the B ratios, is when the market is irrational, as it would be ignoring all that futures activity in the opposite direction.

To put all this into plain English, then for this expiry, we would fully expect a trading range of 2970 all the way down to 2795.

Hopefully, then back up to finish in the zone by the 17th July.

The great unknown, is whether it will take R1, R2 or perhaps even higher.

But, at the end of the day, you at least know where those levels are currently.

 

Range:            2905  to  2955 / 2970           

Activity:          Strong       

Type:              On balance bearish

Posted in Uncategorized

June 19th, 2019 by R1chard

 

Nb. Our comment from 06/12/19

 

You have just got to love these expiries with so much Y ratio in them, even if they are triples.

From the close at 2744.45 on Monday 3rd, right on R2, this market has just pinged all the way up to Y2 at 2905.

What a ride.

A ride you should have expected and hopefully been on.

The worry is that one shouldn’t forget the bears were out in force, as evidenced by the titanic battle this index had with the R2 support level, and it didn’t take much resistance to encourage them.

In fact, all it took was Y2, the first level of resistance, and not a particularly big one at that, but it nevertheless resulted in a 25-point reverse.

The fact that this market hasn’t encountered a R ratio above the zone means we can’t wholeheartedly say the bears are back on top.

However, being in such a huge Y ratio bandwidth, the only thing we can say for certain is that it will be volatile.

And, with the rollover next week the market will need no more encouragement than that to get a head of steam up, so buckle up as this expiry could just be getting going.

 

 

Range:            2855  to  2905 / 2930  

Activity:          Poor  

Type:              On balance decently bearish

 

 

 

 

 

Nb. Our comment on 06/19/19

 

Sadly, we missed out on warning you last week that the zone could easily revert back to where it started this expiry at, 2895-2905.

As we have said this really needs to be monitored daily, as judging by the ratio already in situ, this change happened at least a day ago.

So, the end result was a small overshoot, but as today is the rollover it remains to be seen exactly if, or by how much, it will miss.

The very pleasing aspect we did mention last week was that up to then the rally off R2 at 2745 had not encountered a corresponding R ratio.

The nearest was R1 at 2930, also part of our range, which it hit yesterday, with the intraday high of 2930.79.

So far, at least, it is a bit of a lopsided expiry, by that we mean bouncing between R2 and R1, rather than the same levels.

Nevertheless, it is most definitely a R to R expiry, with a good chance of ending in its zone.

So, after a nigh on 200-point journey over the 5-weeks of this expiry it has been down 100-points to R2 then up 200-points to R1, a whopping 10.3%, which in 5-weeks is very decent.

 

 

Range:            2905  to  2930           

Activity:          Poor         

Type:              On balance bearish

Posted in Uncategorized

June 12th, 2019 by R1chard

 

 

Nb. Our comment from 06/05/19

 

What another titanic battle with R2 for the SPX again.

Excellent.

As we said, “Even more significant, is the fact that R2 has receded to 2745” and “if the bulls do regain control, they have an awful lot of space to express themselves in”, so we sincerely hope you took note.

Between the SPX and the FTSE, we have just witnessed two rather epic ratio inspired support battles, and the good news is, there is still two more weeks of this expiry to go.

The new ratio table is above, and the two aspects to note are that R1 below the zone has slipped to 2770, and R3 to 2695.

The fact that R2 hasn’t moved doesn’t mean it is not weakened, just that it is now at the lower end of R2 rather than the higher end.

Therefore, the ratios are obviously continuing to weaken below the zone, which is bearish, with the saving grace being that the zone itself hasn’t moved.

This, may not be the case for long, unless the bulls really do establish a rally, as the weakness in the ratios below the zone could now easily precipitate a move for it to 2820-2830.

More to the point, the longer the market stays below its zone, the more likely that this could just be the first step.

At the end of the day, fantastic bounce off R2, but it is still in the middle of an enormous Y ratio bandwidth, so nothing resolved yet.

And, if anything, perhaps a sign of things to come, as 2% or 3% daily moves in these conditions are actually only to be expected.

 

Range:            2770  to  2845  

Activity:          Poor  

Type:              On balance just fractionally bearish

 

 

Nb. Our comment on 06/12/19

 

You have just got to love these expiries with so much Y ratio in them, even if they are triples.

From the close at 2744.45 on Monday 3rd, right on R2, this market has just pinged all the way up to Y2 at 2905.

What a ride.

A ride you should have expected and hopefully been on.

The worry is that one shouldn’t forget the bears were out in force, as evidenced by the titanic battle this index had with the R2 support level, and it didn’t take much resistance to encourage them.

In fact, all it took was Y2, the first level of resistance, and not a particularly big one at that, but it nevertheless resulted in a 25-point reverse.

The fact that this market hasn’t encountered a R ratio above the zone means we can’t wholeheartedly say the bears are back on top.

However, being in such a huge Y ratio bandwidth, the only thing we can say for certain is that it will be volatile.

And, with the rollover next week the market will need no more encouragement than that to get a head of steam up, so buckle up as this expiry could just be getting going.

 

 

Range:            2855  to  2905 / 2930           

Activity:          Poor         

Type:              On balance decently bearish

Posted in Uncategorized

June 10th, 2019 by R1chard

 

 

Nb. Our comment from 06/03/19

 

As we said in our last comment on the FTSE back on the 22nd May the defining moment for this expiry we believe will be if the bottom boundary of the zone holds.

On the 29th May the intraday low was 7151.37, before the market managed to close 34-points higher, but was strike one.

Strike two came on Friday 31st May when the intraday low was 7130.85, but the close at 7161.71 was a very hard-fought battle, making it even more impressive to hold in its zone.

This support holding has certainly been helped by the ratio below the zone moving up to R1, but don’t forget this index was born into R3 ratio on the first day of this expiry with the open of 7348.62, and it is also now on strike three.

If Friday was tough then the next time it goes there will be even tougher.

The ratio below the zone may have risen, but it is still the same all the way down to 6950, so if the bottom boundary does crack, then that’s a lot of points before the next level of support.

So, 7150 is really a very critical level, still.

 

Range:            7150  to  7250             

Activity:          Poor

Type:              On balance definitely bearish

 

 

 

Nb. Our comment on 06/10/19

 

The start of last week was all about the bottom boundary of the zone, 7150.

And it was a tough hold, with three very serious tests with intraday lows of 7130.85, then 7079.71 and 7138.14 on Friday 31st May, Monday 3rd and Tuesday 4th June.

But on each occasion the market closed back in its zone in a very impressive display of dynamic delta support.

With the bottom boundary holding the target was the top boundary, so on Wednesday the intraday high was 7259.24 marking the inevitable.

And, although it has been above the zone this expiry, the battle the market had with the upper boundary on Thursday was as epic as the one with the lower one, and basically lasted all day.

The fact the market closed at 7259.85, just above the boundary at 7250, meant Friday was always about being back above the zone.

This means 7450 is a distinct possibility as it gears up towards the rollover next week.

With two weeks still to go there is plenty of life left in this expiry.

 

 

Range:            7250  to  7450          

Activity:          Very poor      

Type:              On balance not bearish           

Posted in Uncategorized