Category: Uncategorized

July 11th, 2019 by R1chard

Nb. Our comment from 07/03/19

 

Well, the “great unknown” has been answered as the intraday high here was 2977.93.

Back on the 25th June R1 was standing at 2970, and today it is 2980, so on Monday the 1st it was probably about half way between the two.

Therefore, we see that as a test of R1, not a breach.

Otherwise, it is looking good, as the zone looks set to move up to 2920-2930, obviously the ratio above the zone are moving out (hence the R1 drift), and as you can see in the table above, they coming in below the zone.

All three are bullish signs.

So, the only problem, is are the bulls that committed that they will buy all those futures forced onto the market through the dynamic delta at R1?

And, now R2 is back to 3005, it is less than 1% above R1, so two hurdles very close together.

The cynics might say, yet another record high on the 4th July, and it happens more often than not, so it’s a tough one to judge, as historically, when so many are away from their desks, it can get a little out of kilter.

But, R2 was enough to stop the triple witching June expiry, both as support and as resistance, so we have to say it should prove too much for July.

And, despite the ratios coming in below the zone, the R ratios down there don’t even start until you hit 2820, and that’s a very long way away indeed.

 

 

Range:            2905  to  2980

Activity:          Moderate         

Type:              On balance only just bearish

 

 

 

                         

Nb. Our comment on 07/11/19

 

Well we got the move up in the zone, and a bit higher than expected as well.

Well, it is higher now, but it is extremely likely that 2925-2930 was a stepping stone, just between our publications.

So, all three bullish signs remain in place, upwardly mobile zone, strengthening ratios below the zone and weakening ones above it.

But, so does the fact that the nearest corresponding ratio below the zone doesn’t appear until 2845, almost 150-points away.

But compare the two tables above, and from a ratio stance, nothing at all has changed, as it has been the ratios that have shifted rather than the market itself being the aggressor.

Regarding the ratios it is worth pointing out that the type is very adamant, and because we can see the actual numbers, we can say it is all very one-sided indeed.

So, all we can say, is go with the flow, but keep your stops very tight, as when a market get fearless like now, and with the rollover next week, just the slightest scare could have enormous effect. Well, a 150-point effect anyway.

 

Range:            2955  to  3005           

Activity:          Moderate       

Type:              Bearish

Posted in Uncategorized

July 8th, 2019 by R1chard

Nb. Our comment from 06/27/19

 

We have to mention the June expiry before we get on to July, and at the start it was all about the bottom of its zone, 7150.

In the middle, it was all about the top of its zone, 7250, and at the end it was the top of the first ratio bandwidth above their zone, or in other words, 7450.

The intraday highs on the last four days being 7469.19, 7454.93, 7460.83 and 7456.79, but always closing below.

Also, the isolated highs do not do justice to how much of a pitched battle it was at that level throughout those respective days.

More importantly, July’s zone has conveniently adapted, as naturally it would, after all, the ratios are a direct reflection of business done.

By comparing the two tables above you can discern in which direction the ratios are moving, which in turn, denotes increasing or decreasing levels of support and resistance.

The most blatantly obvious is the appearance of Y1 below the zone.

Further down from that the support ratios have actually increased, but you can’t miss the fact that these levels are a lot smaller and a lot further away than the resistance levels above the zone.

Obviously, in the meantime, we expect this index to be zone-bound for a while.

However, eventually, it is likely to breakout, and when it does the ratio levels above the zone ratchet up very quickly.

And for those who need clarification, then above the zone you hit R1 after 50-points, at 7500, whereas, below the zone, the corresponding R1 is 200-points below the zone.

So, as it stands, the downside risk is considerable, and the upside is limited.

Especially, with the jump from R1 straight to R3, remembering these ratios are exponential.

Therefore, don’t be fooled by this quiet start, as the potential for big moves is certainly there.

 

Range:             7350  to  7450   

Activity:            Average

Type:               On balance just fractionally bearish          

 

 

 

Nb. Our comment on 07/08/19

 

Well we certainly got our breakout, but even we were surprised by how aggressive the FTSE has been.

To recap, the first week of this expiry the FTSE was stuck in its zone.

This last week has been all about trying to get past the R ratios.

By comparing the two tables above you can see just how dramatic the moves in the ratios has been.

In a nutshell, there have risen below and fallen away above, both of which are bullish.

However, having been above 7600 this index has already beaten R2, and quite possibly even tested the retreating R3.

All far too aggressive for us, and therefore just an accident waiting to happen.

Obviously, 7550 is now critical.

Above it and its battling R2 all the way, but below and it is now all Y ratio back down to the top of the zone, at 7450.

So, all well and good if it can maintain this enthusiasm for buying futures, being generated by the dynamic delta, but if that evaporates, then it is in for a very sudden and bearish surprise.

 

Range:             7450  to  7550        or        7550  to  7650          

Activity:            Average     

Type:                Bearish     

Posted in Uncategorized

July 6th, 2019 by R1chard

Nb. Our comment from 06/25/19

 

It will be interesting to see if the July expiry will carry the same aggression as June’s did.

On which subject, we did get R2 ratio all the way up to the corresponding R2 ratio, with the intraday high of 2958.06 on Thursday, so that made it a perfectly balanced expiry.

Sadly, the only aspect missing was the finish in its zone.

Looking forward, into July, then a quick comparison between the two tables above will tell you that the ratio below the zone has come in considerably, whereas above it, this has been far more tentative.

This is backed up by, not only the high level of activity, but also by its type.

So, the only real question that remains is how aggressive the bulls will be able to be now it’s a new trip.

Historically, if the triple can only get up to R2, then an intermediate expiry should struggle with even R1.

Rather oddly, and against most other market commentators, we see these markets as behaving perfectly rationally.

In fact, were the index not to travel the length of their Y ratio bandwidth, then we would find this weird, no matter how wide it is.

In fact, in a triple, it is very rare that you even get a 20-point Y ratio bandwidth, let alone the 150-points we saw in June.

However, in intermediates, then such wide bandwidths are far more common.

Furthermore, coming up against the naturally occurring dynamic delta occasioned by hitting R2 and reversing, is, again, perfectly rational.

Pushing through, to DR or even the B ratios, is when the market is irrational, as it would be ignoring all that futures activity in the opposite direction.

To put all this into plain English, then for this expiry, we would fully expect a trading range of 2970 all the way down to 2795.

Hopefully, then back up to finish in the zone by the 17th July.

The great unknown, is whether it will take R1, R2 or perhaps even higher.

But, at the end of the day, you at least know where those levels are currently.

 

Range:             2905  to  2955 / 2970

Activity:            Strong   

Type:                On balance bearish

 

                         

Nb. Our comment on 07/03/19

 

Well, the “great unknown” has been answered as the intraday high here was 2977.93.

Back on the 25th June R1 was standing at 2970, and today it is 2980, so on Monday the 1st it was probably about half way between the two.

Therefore, we see that as a test of R1, not a breach.

Otherwise, it is looking good, as the zone looks set to move up to 2920-2930, obviously the ratio above the zone are moving out (hence the R1 drift), and as you can see in the table above, they coming in below the zone.

All three are bullish signs.

So, the only problem, is are the bulls that committed that they will buy all those futures forced onto the market through the dynamic delta at R1?

And, now R2 is back to 3005, it is less than 1% above R1, so two hurdles very close together.

The cynics might say, yet another record high on the 4th July, and it happens more often than not, so it’s a tough one to judge, as historically, when so many are away from their desks, it can get a little out of kilter.

But, R2 was enough to stop the triple witching June expiry, both as support and as resistance, so we have to say it should prove too much for July.

And, despite the ratios coming in below the zone, the R ratios down there don’t even start until you hit 2820, and that’s a very long way away indeed.

 

Range:             2905  to  2980           

Activity:            Moderate       

Type:                On balance only just bearish

Posted in Uncategorized

June 27th, 2019 by R1chard

Nb. Our comment from 06/21/19 (Not published)

 

Range:                         

Activity:         

Type:             

 

 

 

Nb. Our comment on 06/27/19

 

We have to mention the June expiry before we get on to July, and at the start it was all about the bottom of its zone, 7150.

In the middle, it was all about the top of its zone, 7250, and at the end it was the top of the first ratio bandwidth above their zone, or in other words, 7450.

The intraday highs on the last four days being 7469.19, 7454.93, 7460.83 and 7456.79, but always closing below.

Also, the isolated highs do not do justice to how much of a pitched battle it was at that level throughout those respective days.

More importantly, July’s zone has conveniently adapted, as naturally it would, after all, the ratios are a direct reflection of business done.

By comparing the two tables above you can discern in which direction the ratios are moving, which in turn, denotes increasing or decreasing levels of support and resistance.

The most blatantly obvious is the appearance of Y1 below the zone.

Further down from that the support ratios have actually increased, but you can’t miss the fact that these levels are a lot smaller and a lot further away than the resistance levels above the zone.

Obviously, in the meantime, we expect this index to be zone-bound for a while.

However, eventually, it is likely to breakout, and when it does the ratio levels above the zone ratchet up very quickly.

And for those who need clarification, then above the zone you hit R1 after 50-points, at 7500, whereas, below the zone, the corresponding R1 is 200-points below the zone.

So, as it stands, the downside risk is considerable, and the upside is limited.

Especially, with the jump from R1 straight to R3, remembering these ratios are exponential.

Therefore, don’t be fooled by this quiet start, as the potential for big moves is certainly there.

 

Range:            7350  to  7450          

Activity:          Average     

Type:              On balance just fractionally bearish 

Posted in Uncategorized

June 25th, 2019 by R1chard

 

 

 

Nb. Our comment from 06/19/19 (not published)

 

Range:           

Activity:           

Type:             

 

 

 

Nb. Our comment on 06/25/19

 

It will be interesting to see if the July expiry will carry the same aggression as June’s did.

On which subject, we did get R2 ratio all the way up to the corresponding R2 ratio, with the intraday high of 2958.06 on Thursday, so that made it a perfectly balanced expiry.

Sadly, the only aspect missing was the finish in its zone.

Looking forward, into July, then a quick comparison between the two tables above will tell you that the ratio below the zone has come in considerably, whereas above it, this has been far more tentative.

This is backed up by, not only the high level of activity, but also by its type.

So, the only real question that remains is how aggressive the bulls will be able to be now it’s a new trip.

Historically, if the triple can only get up to R2, then an intermediate expiry should struggle with even R1.

Rather oddly, and against most other market commentators, we see these markets as behaving perfectly rationally.

In fact, were the index not to travel the length of their Y ratio bandwidth, then we would find this weird, no matter how wide it is.

In fact, in a triple, it is very rare that you even get a 20-point Y ratio bandwidth, let lone the 150-points we saw in June.

However, in intermediates, then such wide bandwidths are far more common.

Furthermore, coming up against the naturally occurring dynamic delta occasioned by hitting R2 and reversing, is, again, perfectly rational.

Pushing through, to DR or even the B ratios, is when the market is irrational, as it would be ignoring all that futures activity in the opposite direction.

To put all this into plain English, then for this expiry, we would fully expect a trading range of 2970 all the way down to 2795.

Hopefully, then back up to finish in the zone by the 17th July.

The great unknown, is whether it will take R1, R2 or perhaps even higher.

But, at the end of the day, you at least know where those levels are currently.

 

Range:            2905  to  2955 / 2970           

Activity:          Strong       

Type:              On balance bearish

Posted in Uncategorized

June 19th, 2019 by R1chard

 

Nb. Our comment from 06/12/19

 

You have just got to love these expiries with so much Y ratio in them, even if they are triples.

From the close at 2744.45 on Monday 3rd, right on R2, this market has just pinged all the way up to Y2 at 2905.

What a ride.

A ride you should have expected and hopefully been on.

The worry is that one shouldn’t forget the bears were out in force, as evidenced by the titanic battle this index had with the R2 support level, and it didn’t take much resistance to encourage them.

In fact, all it took was Y2, the first level of resistance, and not a particularly big one at that, but it nevertheless resulted in a 25-point reverse.

The fact that this market hasn’t encountered a R ratio above the zone means we can’t wholeheartedly say the bears are back on top.

However, being in such a huge Y ratio bandwidth, the only thing we can say for certain is that it will be volatile.

And, with the rollover next week the market will need no more encouragement than that to get a head of steam up, so buckle up as this expiry could just be getting going.

 

 

Range:            2855  to  2905 / 2930  

Activity:          Poor  

Type:              On balance decently bearish

 

 

 

 

 

Nb. Our comment on 06/19/19

 

Sadly, we missed out on warning you last week that the zone could easily revert back to where it started this expiry at, 2895-2905.

As we have said this really needs to be monitored daily, as judging by the ratio already in situ, this change happened at least a day ago.

So, the end result was a small overshoot, but as today is the rollover it remains to be seen exactly if, or by how much, it will miss.

The very pleasing aspect we did mention last week was that up to then the rally off R2 at 2745 had not encountered a corresponding R ratio.

The nearest was R1 at 2930, also part of our range, which it hit yesterday, with the intraday high of 2930.79.

So far, at least, it is a bit of a lopsided expiry, by that we mean bouncing between R2 and R1, rather than the same levels.

Nevertheless, it is most definitely a R to R expiry, with a good chance of ending in its zone.

So, after a nigh on 200-point journey over the 5-weeks of this expiry it has been down 100-points to R2 then up 200-points to R1, a whopping 10.3%, which in 5-weeks is very decent.

 

 

Range:            2905  to  2930           

Activity:          Poor         

Type:              On balance bearish

Posted in Uncategorized

June 12th, 2019 by R1chard

 

 

Nb. Our comment from 06/05/19

 

What another titanic battle with R2 for the SPX again.

Excellent.

As we said, “Even more significant, is the fact that R2 has receded to 2745” and “if the bulls do regain control, they have an awful lot of space to express themselves in”, so we sincerely hope you took note.

Between the SPX and the FTSE, we have just witnessed two rather epic ratio inspired support battles, and the good news is, there is still two more weeks of this expiry to go.

The new ratio table is above, and the two aspects to note are that R1 below the zone has slipped to 2770, and R3 to 2695.

The fact that R2 hasn’t moved doesn’t mean it is not weakened, just that it is now at the lower end of R2 rather than the higher end.

Therefore, the ratios are obviously continuing to weaken below the zone, which is bearish, with the saving grace being that the zone itself hasn’t moved.

This, may not be the case for long, unless the bulls really do establish a rally, as the weakness in the ratios below the zone could now easily precipitate a move for it to 2820-2830.

More to the point, the longer the market stays below its zone, the more likely that this could just be the first step.

At the end of the day, fantastic bounce off R2, but it is still in the middle of an enormous Y ratio bandwidth, so nothing resolved yet.

And, if anything, perhaps a sign of things to come, as 2% or 3% daily moves in these conditions are actually only to be expected.

 

Range:            2770  to  2845  

Activity:          Poor  

Type:              On balance just fractionally bearish

 

 

Nb. Our comment on 06/12/19

 

You have just got to love these expiries with so much Y ratio in them, even if they are triples.

From the close at 2744.45 on Monday 3rd, right on R2, this market has just pinged all the way up to Y2 at 2905.

What a ride.

A ride you should have expected and hopefully been on.

The worry is that one shouldn’t forget the bears were out in force, as evidenced by the titanic battle this index had with the R2 support level, and it didn’t take much resistance to encourage them.

In fact, all it took was Y2, the first level of resistance, and not a particularly big one at that, but it nevertheless resulted in a 25-point reverse.

The fact that this market hasn’t encountered a R ratio above the zone means we can’t wholeheartedly say the bears are back on top.

However, being in such a huge Y ratio bandwidth, the only thing we can say for certain is that it will be volatile.

And, with the rollover next week the market will need no more encouragement than that to get a head of steam up, so buckle up as this expiry could just be getting going.

 

 

Range:            2855  to  2905 / 2930           

Activity:          Poor         

Type:              On balance decently bearish

Posted in Uncategorized

June 10th, 2019 by R1chard

 

 

Nb. Our comment from 06/03/19

 

As we said in our last comment on the FTSE back on the 22nd May the defining moment for this expiry we believe will be if the bottom boundary of the zone holds.

On the 29th May the intraday low was 7151.37, before the market managed to close 34-points higher, but was strike one.

Strike two came on Friday 31st May when the intraday low was 7130.85, but the close at 7161.71 was a very hard-fought battle, making it even more impressive to hold in its zone.

This support holding has certainly been helped by the ratio below the zone moving up to R1, but don’t forget this index was born into R3 ratio on the first day of this expiry with the open of 7348.62, and it is also now on strike three.

If Friday was tough then the next time it goes there will be even tougher.

The ratio below the zone may have risen, but it is still the same all the way down to 6950, so if the bottom boundary does crack, then that’s a lot of points before the next level of support.

So, 7150 is really a very critical level, still.

 

Range:            7150  to  7250             

Activity:          Poor

Type:              On balance definitely bearish

 

 

 

Nb. Our comment on 06/10/19

 

The start of last week was all about the bottom boundary of the zone, 7150.

And it was a tough hold, with three very serious tests with intraday lows of 7130.85, then 7079.71 and 7138.14 on Friday 31st May, Monday 3rd and Tuesday 4th June.

But on each occasion the market closed back in its zone in a very impressive display of dynamic delta support.

With the bottom boundary holding the target was the top boundary, so on Wednesday the intraday high was 7259.24 marking the inevitable.

And, although it has been above the zone this expiry, the battle the market had with the upper boundary on Thursday was as epic as the one with the lower one, and basically lasted all day.

The fact the market closed at 7259.85, just above the boundary at 7250, meant Friday was always about being back above the zone.

This means 7450 is a distinct possibility as it gears up towards the rollover next week.

With two weeks still to go there is plenty of life left in this expiry.

 

 

Range:            7250  to  7450          

Activity:          Very poor      

Type:              On balance not bearish           

Posted in Uncategorized

June 7th, 2019 by R1chard

Nb. Comment from 05/29/19

It is very difficult to appreciate that this is in fact a triple witch expiry, or quadruple as the US likes to call them, as the activity remains so low.

The level overall is much more befitting a biggie, but it all looks passive.

And, we are back to that ridiculously wide zone.

However, and as we pointed out, the bottom boundary is hugely significant.

Last Thursday, the 23rd, this index got as low as 25328 before finishing at 25490.

At the time we mentioned how statistically irrelevant 10-points is on a twenty-five-thousand-point index, and the opening gap up the next day just went to underline this.

The fact that the next day, Friday, the intraday low was 25496, was also very telling.

So, yesterday, it was looking good, but right towards the end the market got spooked, and, hey presto, strike 3.

The only good news is that the next level of support is actually rather close, and it jumps straight in at R2, please see above table.

Otherwise, it’s going to be all down to the SPX, please see our previous comment on the 21st May, and from our calculations on the 28th R2 here is still at 2770.

The expiry still has a very long way to go, but it is heating up nicely, and now we are testing levels, both in this index, the DJX, but also the SPX, this will ignite activity, if only because of the dynamic delta, so the fun starts now, for us at least.

Enjoy.

Range:            25000  to  25500              

Activity:          Very poor

Type:              Neutral

Nb. Comment on 06/07/19

Well, we certainly hope you are having fun by now.

Shortly after our last comment the bottom boundary did indeed cave in, and as it was already on strike 3 this was hardly a surprise.

This then left R2 at 25000 as the next line of support, and if the SPX was having a titanic battle with their R2, the DJX was certainly not being overshadowed.

Last Friday and on Monday this index closed at 24815 and 24819 respectively, which was very troubling as both were deep inside their R2 bandwidth.

The only saving grace was that on both days the SPX was just then hitting their R2.

It seems it was the SPX that turned the tide, although with this index being in their R2 then it would most certainly have aided and abetted.

It is a triple, so big numbers are more likely than not, but it is worth bearing in mind that the strength of the bearish sentiment took two indices in R2, which is a lot of dynamic delta futures buying, to eventually turn the tide.

The fact that this index bounced straight back up into their zone is only what we would expect, and the same goes for the SPX.

The unexpected part is how much Y ratio there still is in both, especially as this expiry is a triple, where we would expect to see none, or at least, very little.

The only ratios to change here are Y2 drops to Y1 and DR comes in to 24000, both below the zone.

As it stands this index is now back in its super-wide zone, so happy days, but the real battle will be the SPX we believe, and there, might it even get back to bullish territory?

Range:            25500  to  26500             

Activity:          Moderate      

Type:              On balance definitely bearish

Posted in Uncategorized

June 5th, 2019 by R1chard

Nb. Our comment from 05/30/19

Actually, the first thing we should point out that back on the 24th R2 was at 2770, as seen in the table above, but it was unchanged when we calculated the ratios in the SPX on the 28th, and referenced in our comment on the DJX on the 29th.

This is very important, as yesterday’s intraday low was 2766.06, but also it was the manner of this low that was significant, as this was just a spike, whereas the market did hover around the 2770 level for quite a while.

Whilst, on this subject, it was a very similar story for the DJX and their level at 25000.

Even more significant, is the fact that R2 has receded to 2745, and interestingly this is the only ratio to move.

2770 will naturally turn into what we refer to as a “step-up”, but hopefully, unless you are a bear of course, the market will not need to test this level again, the job being done yesterday.

However, this is far from being a done deal, and below the zone the market is in bear mode, and falling ratios are bearish, but it is the first decent level of support this index has encountered, so it might rejuvenate the bulls.

Having said that, it is worth noting that yesterday this index gapped down at the open, starting at 2790.25, so already significantly below R1 at 2795.

Of course, this now makes 2795 a hurdle, so now a critical level.

Basically, now the front line between the bulls and the bears.

Also, please be aware, above the zone, which is still 2845-2855, there is still acres of Y ratio, so if the bulls do regain control, they have an awful lot of space to express themselves in.

Range:            2745  to  2795  

Activity:          Poor  

Type:              On balance only just bearish

Nb. Our comment on 06/05/19

What another titanic battle with R2 for the SPX again.

Excellent.

As we said, “Even more significant, is the fact that R2 has receded to 2745” and “if the bulls do regain control, they have an awful lot of space to express themselves in”, so we sincerely hope you took note.

Between the SPX and the FTSE, we have just witnessed two rather epic ratio inspired support battles, and the good news is, there is still two more weeks of this expiry to go.

The new ratio table is above, and the two aspects to note are that R1 below the zone has slipped to 2770, and R3 to 2695.

The fact that R2 hasn’t moved doesn’t mean it is not weakened, just that it is now at the lower end of R2 rather than the higher end.

Therefore, the ratios are obviously continuing to weaken below the zone, which is bearish, with the saving grace being that the zone itself hasn’t moved.

This, may not be the case for long, unless the bulls really do establish a rally, as the weakness in the ratios below the zone could now easily precipitate a move for it to 2820-2830.

More to the point, the longer the market stays below its zone, the more likely that this could just be the first step.

At the end of the day, fantastic bounce off R2, but it is still in the middle of an enormous Y ratio bandwidth, so nothing resolved yet.

And, if anything, perhaps a sign of things to come, as 2% or 3% daily moves in these conditions are actually only to be expected.

Range:            2770  to  2845           

Activity:          Poor         

Type:              On balance just fractionally bearish

Posted in Uncategorized