Category: Uncategorized

July 10th, 2020 by R1chard

The SPX Zone will move soon.

 

Nb. Our comment from the 07/07/20

 

Just like London across the pond, here in the SPX it has been all about Y2 as well.

We used to publish daily, and before the market opened, so everyone who took note would know well in advance where the potential speedbumps were.

Back on the 30th June we published Y2 as being at 3155, above the zone, and by Thursday 2nd July, this had not changed.

The intraday high that day was 3165.81, which in truth doesn’t do the battle at 3155 justice, and resulted in the eventual close at 3130.01.

On Monday 6th Y2 slipped to 3180, so we were hardly surprised to see the intraday high of 3182.59, but the recovery towards the close at 3179.72, showed exactly what their intentions are today.

Normally, this would mean, a gap up at the open, to try to leapfrog this particular hurdle.

Ironically, this would not have been necessary, as today, Y2 has slipped further, to 3195.

So, with the market opening easier, this was a lot of unnecessary effort, as it leaves them with it still all to do.

And it is not just Y2 that has slipped above the zone, with both R1 and R2 moving out, giving this market plenty of leeway above it.

Furthermore, the potential for the zone to move up, to 3095-3105, is back on again.

At the end of the day, Y2 should not be that great an impediment, and in truth, the Y ratios are so low they are really only calculated to reveal early signs of directionality, they are so minimal, so bear this sensitivity in mind, as this index still resides towards the top of a 360-point Y ratio bandwidth.

Other than that, it is all looking good, but very thin.

 

Range:            2895  to  3255         

Activity:          Poor 

Type:              On balance bearish

 

 

Nb. Our comment for 07/10/20

 

It certainly has been an odd expiry thus far in the SPX.

The zone has been static so far, and at the start of this expiry this index dropped 100-points to go down and visit it.

At the start, Y2 was at 3205, but by the end of June, it had dropped to 3155.

On the 2nd July the intraday high was 3165.81, before it closed at 3130.01, which also served to reverse Y2’s move, as it moved back out to 3180.

This is what caught this index on the 6th July, when the intraday high was 3182.59, and the close was 3179.72.

On the 7th Y2 had moved to 3195, and as you can see in the above table, today it is back to where it started the expiry, 3205.

Sometimes it is worth knowing what has happened, as it always helps to get a feel for where any index is.

The fact that the moves are so small, when all it has to contend with is the very minimal Y1 ratio, shows a total lack of interest and desire, on top of, or resulting in, its increased sensitivity.

Which brings us around to next week, as it is the rollover and expiry, which should get a bit of activity back into this market.

We are expecting the zone to move to 2995-3005, or 3145-3155, so it is where it needs to be for next week already.

However, once a bit of activity kicks-in, then it is still in a 330-point Y ratio bandwidth, so things should start to get exciting.

If history is anything to go by, 3% daily moves would be perfectly normal, as would whipsaw, so brace yourselves and keep those stops tight.

 

Range:            2940  to  3270         

Activity:          Very poor 

Type:              Bearish

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July 7th, 2020 by R1chard

The SPX seems also sensitive to just Y2 Ratio currently.

 

Nb. Our comment from the 06/30/20

 

Actually, you just couldn’t make this up even if you wanted to, as the very day we published, after two very nondescript days, we got a 100-point move.

Furthermore, in the meantime, it has still been all about the ultra-wide zone.

We did notice yesterday however, that, for the first time, the zone begun to resemble the normal width it is today.

Although, the last couple of days of last week, 3000 came into the picture, so the zone could easily have stretched from 2995 all the way up to 3105, and that, most definitely, would have been the widest zone in the SPX ever.

We don’t want to come across as labouring the point, but as this expiry moves forward, it would be well worth remember how very little ratio there was, and, more significantly, where it wasn’t.

But, at least now, a third of the way through, it seems to have made up its mind.

Therefore, there is absolutely no coincidence, that the close yesterday was where it was, right in its zone.

Also, just to underline this, the ratios either side of the zone, have begun to act as if this is where it now wants to be.

The fact that the ratios have now decided, should not lull you into any false sense of security, as this market still has a ginormous Y ratio bandwidth.

And, today, it may well decide upon which side of the zone it wants to be in.

Which is no trivial matter, as below the bears are in control, whereas above, you’ve guessed it, the bulls are in charge.

Whichever wins, it still has a Y ratio bandwidth of 335-points, so really, the fun is just getting going.

 

Range:            2895  to  3230         

Activity:          Good 

Type:              Neutral

 

Nb. Our comment for 07/07/20

 

Just like London across the pond, here in the SPX it has been all about Y2 as well.

We used to publish daily, and before the market opened, so everyone who took note would know well in advance where the potential speedbumps were.

Back on the 30th June we published Y2 as being at 3155, above the zone, and by Thursday 2nd July, this had not changed.

The intraday high that day was 3165.81, which in truth doesn’t do the battle at 3155 justice, and resulted in the eventual close at 3130.01.

On Monday 6th Y2 slipped to 3180, so we were hardly surprised to see the intraday high of 3182.59, but the recovery towards the close at 3179.72, showed exactly what their intentions are today.

Normally, this would mean, a gap up at the open, to try to leapfrog this particular hurdle.

Ironically, this would not have been necessary, as today, Y2 has slipped further, to 3195.

So, with the market opening easier, this was a lot of unnecessary effort, as it leaves them with it still all to do.

And it is not just Y2 that has slipped above the zone, with both R1 and R2 moving out, giving this market plenty of leeway above it.

Furthermore, the potential for the zone to move up, to 3095-3105, is back on again.

At the end of the day, Y2 should not be that great an impediment, and in truth, the Y ratios are so low they are really only calculated to reveal early signs of directionality, they are so minimal, so bear this sensitivity in mind, as this index still resides towards the top of a 360-point Y ratio bandwidth.

Other than that, it is all looking good, but very thin.

 

Range:            2895  to  3255         

Activity:          Poor 

Type:              On balance bearish

 

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July 6th, 2020 by R1chard

The FTSE , timid but persistent.

 

Nb. Our comment from the 06/29/20

 

Exactly as we said, please check above, as our big concern was the proximity of R1, and at the time it was 60-points above the market, but as last Monday finished down 45-points, it made for an even more impressive test on the Tuesday.

On the 23rd, it was a case of the market jumping a hundred points, to the intraday high of 6342.19, to test R1, that made its surprise at finding all that futures selling courtesy of the dynamic delta so effective.

And with so much Y ratio beneath it, it was hardly surprising that the Wednesday was a sea of red.

The fact that the FTSE covered our entire 300-point trading range in just three days is also very impressive, not to mention pleasing.

The intraday low on the 25th was 6029.25, which was a deep incursion below the upper boundary of its zone, and at the time, we thought that it might have been broken.

The only thing that held us back from saying so, was the manner in which it was passed on the day, as it really was just a very long wick on a 5-minute candle, that produced that low, rather than a more prolonged and protracted battle that we would expect.

We have left our trading range unchanged, but we would anticipate the zones upper boundary being tested again, and although this would be strike 2, it must have been badly weakened by that 20-point incursion last Wednesday.

Therefore, we don’t expect much support, some, but not a lot.

Which means, that once in its zone, there is absolutely no ratio at all until the bottom boundary at 5950.

This, is where the real battle will be, we suspect, and if this fails, then below the zone is bear territory, which, we should point out, is where the SPX is already.

 

Range:            6050  to  6350        

Activity:          Moderate

Type:              On balance just fractionally bullish

 

 

 

Nb. Our comment on 07/06/20

 

Well we hope you enjoyed last week, exciting as it was, it actually went absolutely nowhere.

Which is not quite true, as you can see in the table above, it has actually fallen two-points.

Nevertheless, had you been aware of the ratio levels you would have had a wonderful trading week.

Monday the 29th saw the first test of Y2, still at 6250, with the intraday high of 6251.96, with the eventual close at 6225.77.

Then you had to wait until Thursday 2nd July for the next test, with the intraday high of 6258.60.

Friday saw strike three, and naturally, the incursion was a bit deeper this time, with the intraday high of 6262.71, and the eventual close way down at 6157.30.

We think Y2 has done its job now, and three times at that, so we rather doubt it will be as robust again, should it be retested.

Apart from the market’s persistence attacking Y2, it is rather revealing that such a low level of ratio has had such an effect, while at the same time, the market has yet to trouble the other end, namely the top boundary of its zone.

Now we are exactly half way through this expiry, the FTSE needs to test 6050, and if that holds, then it should empower the bulls enough to be able to push through Y2.

There have been big daily moves in this market, 100-points plus every day, and yet still no test of 6050, but three of Y2 at 6250, which says a lot, and that is that it is blinkered, but timid.

 

Range:            6050  to  6350        

Activity:          Poor

Type:              On balance bullish

 

 

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June 30th, 2020 by R1chard

At last the SPX sorts its zone out.

 

Nb. Our comment from the 06/24/20

 

And July is picking up exactly where June left off, with it being all about the zone.

Now, first and foremost, the surprise is that the zone is an astonishing 60-points wide.

Not unheard of, but still, very rare and unusual for it to deviate from the standard 10-points.

There are two reasons for this we believe, firstly that it is taking an age to actually make the transition from where it was back on the 18th, to where we flagged it was going to go, 3095-3105.

Secondly, it is symptomatic and just highlights the fact that there is an absolute dearth of ratio around in this, the July expiry, at this point in time.

The good news, is that the zone continues to climb, or at least, good news in the                       sense this is bullish.

Perhaps bad news for those bulls, is that the Y ratio bandwidth, stretches from 2820 all the way up to 3305, which is practically 500-points.

For those that remember “normal” markets, the amount of times this index went up, or down, to the nearest R levels, then traversed the entire Y ratio bandwidth, to eventually reverse again to end near its zone, what we used to call “a roundtrip”, was very common indeed.

Normally, this would result in 5% to 10% over the course of an expiry.

But were this to happen today, then just the 500-point leg alone is equivalent to 16% almost, and that is madness.

Basically, the last two days have been amazingly timid, as 100-point moves, minimum, here, should really now be expected.

 

Range:            3105  to  3305         

Activity:          Average 

Type:              On balance just bearish

 

 

Nb. Our comment for 06/30/20

 

Actually, you just couldn’t make this up even if you wanted to, as the very day we published, after two very nondescript days, we got a 100-point move.

Furthermore, in the meantime, it has still been all about the ultra-wide zone.

We did notice yesterday however, that, for the first time, the zone begun to resemble the normal width it is today.

Although, the last couple of days of last week, 3000 came into the picture, so the zone could easily have stretched from 2995 all the way up to 3105, and that, most definitely, would have been the widest zone in the SPX ever.

We don’t want to come across as labouring the point, but as this expiry moves forward, it would be well worth remember how very little ratio there was, and, more significantly, where it wasn’t.

But, at least now, a third of the way through, it seems to have made up its mind.

Therefore, there is absolutely no coincidence, that the close yesterday was where it was, right in its zone.

Also, just to underline this, the ratios either side of the zone, have begun to act as if this is where it now wants to be.

The fact that the ratios have now decided, should not lull you into any false sense of security, as this market still has a ginormous Y ratio bandwidth.

And, today, it may well decide upon which side of the zone it wants to be in.

Which is no trivial matter, as below the bears are in control, whereas above, you’ve guessed it, the bulls are in charge.

Whichever wins, it still has a Y ratio bandwidth of 335-points, so really, the fun is just getting going.

 

Range:            2895  to  3230         

Activity:          Good 

Type:              Neutral

 

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June 29th, 2020 by R1chard

Will the FTSE zone hold this time?

Nb. Our comment from the 06/22/20

 

Certainly, an exciting end to the June expiry, and they almost even got back to their zone, or at least, got a lot closer than we ever imagined they would.

More important, is the next expiry, which is July, and which runs until the 17th being a normal 4-week trip.

And that is about the end of the good news, if you are a bull that is.

Actually, that’s not quite true, as the SPX has the awesome range (when we last calculated it) of 2795 all the way up to 3305, so it may lend a hand on this side of the pond, depending on which way it chooses.

The most important and noticeable aspect of the London benchmark, is its zone, which is way down there at 5950-6050.

It is fairly well supported underneath there with some decent ratio levels, so it is not out of the question that it could move up.

However, a far more pressing concern of ours, is the proximity of R1, as at 6350, it is just 60-points above the current market.

Of course, this index has taken on, and beaten R1 before, so we can’t rule this out.

But, for those of you with a low level of risk tolerance, the corresponding R1 doesn’t appear until 5850, so to say it is lop-sided, is a serious understatement.

We will know soon enough, but just a quick glance at the above table, will tell you that there is an awful lot of Y ratio present, and 90% is all below this index, and that is a major worry for us.

 

Range:            6050  to  6350        

Activity:          Good

Type:              Neutral

 

 

 

Nb. Our comment on 06/29/20

 

Exactly as we said, please check above, as our big concern was the proximity of R1, and at the time it was 60-points above the market, but as last Monday finished down 45-points, it made for an even more impressive test on the Tuesday.

On the 23rd, it was a case of the market jumping a hundred points, to the intraday high of 6342.19, to test R1, that made its surprise at finding all that futures selling courtesy of the dynamic delta so effective.

And with so much Y ratio beneath it, it was hardly surprising that the Wednesday was a sea of red.

The fact that the FTSE covered our entire 300-point trading range in just three days is also very impressive, not to mention pleasing.

The intraday low on the 25th was 6029.25, which was a deep incursion below the upper boundary of its zone, and at the time, we thought that it might have been broken.

The only thing that held us back from saying so, was the manner in which it was passed on the day, as it really was just a very long wick on a 5-minute candle, that produced that low, rather than a more prolonged and protracted battle that we would expect.

We have left our trading range unchanged, but we would anticipate the zones upper boundary being tested again, and although this would be strike 2, it must have been badly weakened by that 20-point incursion last Wednesday.

Therefore, we don’t expect much support, some, but not a lot.

Which means, that once in its zone, there is absolutely no ratio at all until the bottom boundary at 5950.

This, is where the real battle will be, we suspect, and if this fails, then below the zone is bear territory, which, we should point out, is where the SPX is already.

 

Range:            6050  to  6350        

Activity:          Moderate

Type:              On balance just fractionally bullish

 

 

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June 24th, 2020 by R1chard

This must be the biggest zone and Y Ratio Bandwidth in the SPX ever.

Nb. Our comment from the 06/18/20 (Not published for the July Expiry)

 

Nb. Our comment for 06/24/20

 

And July is picking up exactly where June left off, with it being all about the zone.

Now, first and foremost, the surprise is that the zone is an astonishing 60-points wide.

Not unheard of, but still, very rare and unusual for it to deviate from the standard 10-points.

There are two reasons for this we believe, firstly that it is taking an age to actually make the transition from where it was back on the 18th, to where we flagged it was going to go, 3095-3105.

Secondly, it is symptomatic and just highlights the fact that there is an absolute dearth of ratio around in this, the July expiry, at this point in time.

The good news, is that the zone continues to climb, or at least, good news in the sense this is bullish.

Perhaps bad news for those bulls, is that the Y ratio bandwidth, stretches from 2820 all the way up to 3305, which is practically 500-points.

For those that remember “normal” markets, the amount of times this index went up, or down, to the nearest R levels, then traversed the entire Y ratio bandwidth, to eventually reverse again to end near its zone, what we used to call “a roundtrip”, was very common indeed.

Normally, this would result in 5% to 10% over the course of an expiry.

But were this to happen today, then just the 500-point leg alone is equivalent to 16% almost, and that is madness.

Basically, the last two days have been amazingly timid, as 100-point moves, minimum, here, should really now be expected.

 

Range:            3105  to  3305         

Activity:          Average 

Type:              On balance just bearish

 

Available to buy now

The faction account of the Big Bang, The Great Storm and the market crash of 1987, available in eBook and paperback here, a must read if you don’t believe in history repeating itself.

Posted in Uncategorized

June 22nd, 2020 by R1chard

A very interesting Ratio alignment in the FTSE for the July expiry.

 

 

Nb. Our comment from the 06/15/20 (Not published for the July expiry)

 

Nb. Our comment on 06/22/20

 

Certainly, an exciting end to the June expiry, and they almost even got back to their zone, or at least, got a lot closer than we ever imagined they would.

More important, is the next expiry, which is July, and which runs until the 17th being a normal 4-week trip.

And that is about the end of the good news, if you are a bull that is.

Actually, that’s not quite true, as the SPX has the awesome range (when we last calculated it) of 2795 all the way up to 3305, so it may lend a hand on this side of the pond, depending on which way it chooses.

The most important and noticeable aspect of the London benchmark, is its zone, which is way down there at 5950-6050.

It is fairly well supported underneath there with some decent ratio levels, so it is not out of the question that it could move up.

However, a far more pressing concern of ours, is the proximity of R1, as at 6350, it is just 60-points above the current market.

Of course, this index has taken on, and beaten R1 before, so we can’t rule this out.

But, for those of you with a low level of risk tolerance, the corresponding R1 doesn’t appear until 5850, so to say it is lop-sided, is a serious understatement.

We will know soon enough, but just a quick glance at the above table, will tell you that there is an awful lot of Y ratio present, and 90% is all below this index, and that is a major worry for us.

 

Range:            6050  to  6350        

Activity:          Good

Type:              Neutral

Available to buy now

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June 18th, 2020 by R1chard

R1 did its job in the SPX, but now all about the zone.

 

Nb. Our comment from the 06/16/20

 

Absolutely by the book, and exactly as we said; “Now it is back in the Y ratios the only thing that we can say with any certainty, is expect volatility, or more pointedly, the continuation of, and whipsaw”. Please see above.

Volatility, check, and whipsaw, probably one of the biggest ever, being from down 76-points to being up 38-points for a 114-point swing, so definitely, check.

Actually, our other expectation has come in as well, with the zone moving to 2995-3005.

Probably helped the bulls’ case, as when it went north it very likely passed the market going the other way.

It is still in a stupidly wide Y ratio bandwidth, which now makes 3155 rather significant.

However, at the end of the day, if you lob a several trillion-dollar hand grenade into the market during the rollover and expiry week, what do you expect.

The sincere concern, is that the powers that be remain so totally ignorant of natural market forces, that when they see the market get repulsed by R2 and head back towards its zone, they panic.

It was foreseeable, therefore predictable, and if you don’t believe this then just read our comments for this expiry, and, so therefore, a perfectly normal market reaction.

No need to panic, as if that is what they have done, and we believe so, then it not only reveals a total lack of understanding, but the fact that what they are doing is misguided, and therefore also wrong.

Your decision then, stimulus vs. rollover.

 

Range:            2795  to  3155         

Activity:          Moderate

Type:              On balance bearish

 

 

 

Nb. Our comment for 06/18/20

 

The very day we published the SPX went up to R1, with an intraday high of 3153.45.

In fact, pre-market, the futures had it considerably higher than that, nearer 3165 just before the open.

It was quite a tussle, and those that knew there was a decent amount of dynamic delta futures selling at that exact point, could just see the confusion in the market.

It did take a while, but eventually the market succumbed to the selling.

Interestingly, it didn’t go very far, but then with the recently announced stimulus package, we think it was rather impressive R1 actually worked.

We should say, that yesterday, there were no changes in the ratios above the zone from what they were on the 16th.

The point being, that it is only today that R1 has slipped from 3155 out to 3205.

With a day to go, and under the circumstances, an expiry anywhere in the Y ratios would be a result.

However, it is worth remembering that this index has seen its zone move, from at the start of this expiry, 2795-2805, in two steps, to where it is currently, 2995-3005.

Obviously, at this time, activity spikes, but by going by the ROC, we would not be altogether surprised to see one more zone move, to 3095-3105.

The real test now will be when this index moves into their July expiry, as these intermediaries are historically considerably less populated, and after the last three trips we have seen, this is only going to be worse than normal.

So, at the end of the day, we may be very grateful that the SPX is responding to just R1, but only a few we suspect, will welcome the return of another gargantuan Y ratio bandwidth.

 

Range:            2795  to  3205         

Activity:          Moderate 

Type:              Neutral


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June 16th, 2020 by R1chard

Why panic, it's just the rollover and expiry.

 

Nb. Our comment from the 06/12/20

 

As we said, “it is just a question of when?”. Or, did we hear a “Boo”.

Actually, we also said that the zone in all likelihood will move to 2995-3005, so we were hardly surprised to see that is exactly where the market eventually ended up.

Albeit a week early (expiry is next week) and the fact the zone hasn’t actually moved yet, but small matters really.

For us, the real battle came at 3205, on the day of our last comment.

The fact that the market finished below R2 that day was the most significant thing that happened this week.

Then yesterday, when the market broke down below R1, and back into the Y ratio bandwidth, it just did everything exactly by the ratio book.

Now it is back in the Y ratios the only thing that we can say with any certainty, is expect volatility, or more pointedly, the continuation of, and whipsaw.

The potential bad news, if you are a bull that is, is that 2795-2805 hasn’t been filling in with ratio.

So, it is not beyond the realms of possibility, that the zone could drop 100-points as easily as it could jump a hundred.

Which is very probably why it hasn’t already moved to 2995-3005, which is still the favourite, but now only by a nose.

The rollover is next week, with the expiry on Friday, then we are back into the intermediary ones.

So, the real issues will be, firstly, have they now adjusted, and, secondly, their disposition, as in, will we still have a gargantuan Y ratio bandwidth?

Let you know next week.

 

Range:            2905  to  3155         

Activity:          Very poor 

Type:              On balance only just bearish

 

 

Nb. Our comment for 06/16/20

 

Absolutely by the book, and exactly as we said; “Now it is back in the Y ratios the only thing that we can say with any certainty, is expect volatility, or more pointedly, the continuation of, and whipsaw”. Please see above.

Volatility, check, and whipsaw, probably one of the biggest ever, being from down 76-points to being up 38-points for a 114-point swing, so definitely, check.

Actually, our other expectation has come in as well, with the zone moving to 2995-3005.

Probably helped the bulls’ case, as when it went north it very likely passed the market going the other way.

It is still in a stupidly wide Y ratio bandwidth, which now makes 3155 rather significant.

However, at the end of the day, if you lob a several trillion-dollar hand grenade into the market during the rollover and expiry week, what do you expect.

The sincere concern, is that the powers that be remain so totally ignorant of natural market forces, that when they see the market get repulsed by R2 and head back towards its zone, they panic.

It was foreseeable, therefore predictable, and if you don’t believe this then just read our comments for this expiry, and, so therefore, a perfectly normal market reaction.

No need to panic, as if that is what they have done, and we believe so, then it not only reveals a total lack of understanding, but the fact that what they are doing is misguided, and therefore also wrong.

Your decision then, stimulus vs. rollover.

 

Range:            2795  to  3155         

Activity:          Moderate

Type:              On balance bearish

 

 

Available to buy now

The faction account of the Big Bang, The Great Storm and the market crash of 1987, available in eBook and paperback here, a must read if you don’t believe in history repeating itself.

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June 15th, 2020 by R1chard

FTSE zone still undecided for the rollover and expiry.

 

Nb. Our comment from the 06/08/20

 

It is worth reminding that on Friday 15th May, after the May series had expired, the FTSE went as low as 5741.54, which back then, in the June series, was a solid test of the level DR ratio at 5750, which is a big level.

(Nb. The May expiry zone was 5650-5750)

So, it is interesting that this level has now slipped to 5650, but this could just be academic now.

For the simple reason, and even we are a bit stunned by this, this index is inside its zone.

That is a truly massive 700-point, or 12.2%, jump, and all in just three weeks.

Generally, the FTSE doesn’t tend to move like this, so it really is a remarkable feat.

Today is going to be a massive day for this index, as there are still two weeks to go in this expiry, so what happens now will essentially decide the next fortnight.

It might be too much to hope for this market to quietly while away the time happy and safe in its zone.

After the Street’s performance Friday, we suspect the zone upper boundary will be the battleground, rather like last Monday, when it was all about 6150, and getting back above that. But, with the volatility inherent in these markets, it just takes one bit of bad news, and it could easily be the bottom boundary being the battleground.

Either way, R1 shouldn’t really scare the market that much, but it is given extra strength as it is also the upper boundary, but at the other end, where it has only just broken through, that might prove tougher to hold.

However, we feel the real problem may well be the SPX, as it is now deep into their R2 ratio, and if that level of dynamic delta futures selling upsets the apple cart over there, it may well have negative repercussions over here.

 

Range:            6450  to  6550        

Activity:          Poor

Type:              On balance bullish

 

 

Nb. Our comment on 06/18/20

Well, at the end of the day, it was indeed the SPX that upset the apple cart over here.

It was a magnificent feat for this market to get back into its zone, but, again as we said, it was rather unlike this market to travel 12.2% in just a few weeks, so was naturally rather stretched.

Nevertheless, at the start of last week 6450, the bottom boundary of said zone, put up a tremendous fight, especially on the Monday, when it fought off a surprise attack late in the afternoon, having battled with the bears for the first hour or so that morning.

Once it cracked, and it did take a few go’s on Tuesday, the next support wasn’t until it got down to R2 at 6150.

This did put up bit of a fight on the Thursday, but with the Street so weak, it was always going to be a losing battle.

 More important is the week ahead, which is the rollover and expiry.

It’s really difficult to tell, as if you read our comments on the SPX, then you would know we are looking for that zone to move to 2995-3005, so it is now where it wants to be.

The reason we point this out here, is because nobody can deny, that this market had a huge impact on the FTSE last week.

So, assuming no undue influence from there, the FTSE, left to its own devices, should be aiming for its zone for the rollover.

However, having had a sneaky peek at July, and seeing that expiries zone is 5950-6050, we can’t help but feel, for the current June expiry, it may be easier for the ratios to adjust than the market to go back up 350-points.

So, 6000 is one option for the zone, and 6150-6250 is another, it is just too early to tell.

However, Monday should see the market decide, as people now focus on the rollover.

Sorry, not very decisive from us, but that’s just the way the numbers calculate, so 6150 is now a very significant level.

 

Range:            5950  to  6150        

Activity:          Very very poor

Type:              Bullish

 

 

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