Nb. Our comment from 03/25/19
It is a real shame we didn’t publish
last week, as it was blatantly obvious to us the FTSE was an accident waiting
The only surprise was that the FTSE got
as far as it did, and 7350, or R3 to us, played a pivotal role last week.
The intraday high on Tuesday was
7350.10, on Wednesday it got up to 7341.57 for its second attempt, and then on
Thursday, strike 3, it peaked at 7370.61.
However, the most telling aspect was the
close on Thursday at 7355.31, and the fact that R3 wasn’t retreating, so the
bulls were certainly keen, but, as we say, it was an accident waiting to
Of course, had the other markets not
been in similar circumstances, then the FTSE may well have gone on to test DR,
but then it’s all about risk and reward.
Which to us, with a 200-point Y ratio
bandwidth above a zone that is way down there at 6950-7050, the risks were
certainly at the top end of the scale.
7250 is now the new critical level.
Type: On balance bearish
Nb. Our comment on 04/09/19
And we were not wrong as 7250 dominated
this index for that week, until Friday 29th when it managed to hold
on for that all important close above it, at 7279.17.
The trouble is that when we last
commented on the FTSE, an entire 10 trading days ago, the ratio landscape has
There is absolutely no point in guessing
when, so we are just going to fast-forward to the end of the next week, Friday
the 5th April, when the close was 7446.87.
More importantly, the intraday high was
7461.39, so we strongly suspect that was this index’s first pop at R3.
However, we would be remiss not to point
out how huge the changes have been, and in fact, so much so, they have virtually
flipped 180 degrees from the 25th March.
Although there is now Y2 above the zone,
what was there back on the 25th is now below the zone, which itself
has leapt 200-points to 7150-7250.
But, the real clincher, is B1 has gone
from above the old zone to now being below it, which signifies that the entire
ratio alignment has totally adjusted.
No wonder it has managed to eventually
achieve what it was threatening to in that very first week.
We would fully anticipate 7450 to slip
to R2, leaving 7500 as the next resistance level.
If this is the case then the trading
range should be 7400 to 7500.
Then, it will be all down to the rate of change in the ratios, especially as the clock is ticking and the expiry is now fast appearing on the horizon.
to 7450 or 7450